WOW. I HAVE NEVER SEEN 45 % ON A DAY TWO IN A LONG TIME.
SPC AC 290705
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0205 AM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004
VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW
AND RMG 20 N TUP 40 WSW MEM 35 W POF 50 ESE VIH 20 SSW SPI 40 ENE
BMI 30 W SBN 15 N TOL 20 SSE CLE 25 SW HLG 25 S CRW 15 S HSS 55 WNW
AND.
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE
GSP 30 ESE ATL 20 SSW BHM 40 NNW JAN 40 SE TXK PRX 35 NNW MLC OJC 45
SSW ALO 10 W VOK 30 SSW ESC 30 SW APN 20 ESE ERI 30 NNE LBE 25 NNW
SHD 20 E HKY 25 SSE GSP.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE ART 25 NNE NEL.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE CHS 20 E VLD 30
SE TLH.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE NIR 15 WSW AUS
45 SSW SPS 15 ENE CSM 15 SW SLN 25 W BIE 60 SSE 9V9 35 S PHP 35 E
SHR 60 ENE HVR.
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF OH AND TN VALLEYS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MID AND UPPER MS VALLEY EWD TO
APPALACHIANS OUTSIDE OF THE MDT RISK AREA...
...WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY MUCH OF OH AND TN
VALLEYS...
...LARGE PORTION OF MID MS/OH AND TN VALLEYS...
UNSEASONABLY STRONG TROUGH REMAINS PROGRESSIVE ON DY2 WITH VIGOROUS
MID/UPPER LEVEL JET MAX ROTATING RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS LOWER MO VALLEY
INTO THE OH VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW IS
PROGGED TO MOVE W OF N UNDER THE UPPER LOW OVER NRN MS VALLEY DURING
THE PERIOD...A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
JET MAX AND S/WV TROUGH DEVELOPS AT TRIPLE POINT OF WARM/COLD FRONT
AND MOVES ENEWD ACROSS NRN OH VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT.
VERY MOIST AIR MASS WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 70S WILL SPREAD NEWD
ACROSS MUCH OF AREA BETWEEN MS VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS DURING THE
DAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH BY 18Z SHOULD BE LOCATED FROM THE
SURFACE LOW OVER MN SWD INTO ERN MO AND THEN SWWD INTO SWRN TX.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS OH/TN VALLEYS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF 50KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...MUCAPES OF 3000 J/KG AND HIGHER AND INCREASING ASCENT
SPREADING EWD WITH S/WV TROUGH AND MID/UPPER LEVEL JET MAX WILL
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. TORNADOES WILL BE LIKELY WITH STORMS EVOLVING
INTO LINES AND BOWS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING SUNDAY
NIGHT. WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE STRONG COUPLED JET INTERACTS WITH THE VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR
MASS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW NEWD ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AFTER DARK GIVEN THE TIMING OF
THE INCREASING SUPPORT FROM THE APPROACHING JET MAX AND AVAILABILITY
OF A VERY MOIST AIR MASS.
THE EFFECTS OF ONGOING CONVECTION FROM DY1 WILL LIKELY PLAY A ROLE
IN THE INITIATION OF SURFACE BASED STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS
DIFFICULT TO EVALUATE ATTM...HOWEVER THE THERMODYNAMICS AND
KINEMATICS ALL POINT TO A VERY ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY OVER A
LARGE AREA BETWEEN MS RIVER VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS.
..HALES.. 05/29/2004
45% hatched area on the Day 2. I think there will be a HIGH risk on the Day 1 for at least part of the Moderate Risk area. 
