With strong westerlies aloft over the Atlantic and a subtropical high situated near the Caribbean Islands, nothing is expected to develop there. There is a disturbance over central America over Honduras. But it's over land, thus no development. Finally there is a tropical wave east of the Lesser Antillies, which will bring showers, but no development. It appears the ITCZ is also firing far to the south. Heavy rains recently over northeast Brazil killed up to 20 people yesterday. Unfortunately more heavy tropical rains can be anticipated in that area of the world. However just about everything is unfavorable in the Atlantic basin for tropical cyclone development. It's proof that we don't even need a tropical cyclone to cause destructive and deadly floods such as what we saw yesterday in northeast Brazil and also recently in Haiti and the Dominican Republic.
If something were to develop this time of year, it would be over the western Caribbean and into the Gulf Of Mexico. Only 3 storms occurred northeast of the Lesser Antillies since records started in the Atlantic basin with nothing developing over the Cape Verde Islands.
I'll issue more updates tomorrow on the entire tropics and once a day daily unless I'm on vacation such as the case will be in mid July. Welcome to hurricane season '04 folks!!!!
Jim
Welcome to hurricane season '04, today's outlook 6-3-04
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