FLOYDBUSTER'S 2004 PREDICTIONS...

[Anonymous]

Floydbuster's UPDATED 2004 Hurricane Forecast

Hurricane Alex
June 11-15
75 mph
987 MB
Alex forms from a broad area of low pressure in the Yucatan Channel and slowly drifts north. On the 11th it is upgraded to a 35 mph depression. By 11pm that night, Alex forms with 45 mph winds. It stalls out 200 miles due south of Panama City Beach, FL on the 12th and stays in the same area for two days. On the morning of the 14th, Alex quickly begins to move NNE and strengthens from 45 to 75 mph in a matter of 9 hrs. It strikes near Destin, FL on the morning of the 15, and dissapates the same day. Damage is light.

Tropical Storm Bonnie
June 23-25
60 mph
991 MB
A cluster of thunderstorms near Costa Rica rapidly forms into a Tropical Depression then Bonnie in a matter of hours. It rapidly strengthens into a strong tropical storm and comes inland in Costa Rica on the 25th. Rains cause massive flooding there killing many people from those dangerous flood waters.

Hurricane Charley
July 1-8
150 mph
930 MB
A cluster of storms off the coast of Belize quickly becomes TD#3 and comes inland as a 40 mph storm named Charley. Charly comes out in the BOM as a 35 mph system, and then rapidly begins to intensify in the tradition of Bret and Keith. Moving slow, it reaches a peak of 150 mph and 930 MB on the afternoon of the 6th. On the morning of the 7th it comes inland JUST south of Brownsville in Mexico. Offical landfall near Matamoros, Mexico, but the eye was so large, Brownsville had the northern eyewall for over four hours. 148 mph wind was recorded in Brownsville and a 157 mph gust. Charley moved inland and weakened to a Tropical Depression by the morning of the 8th. Damage in Northern Mexico and Southern Texas was extreme.

Tropical Storm Danielle
July 10-15
65 mph
992 MB
A wave moves off of Africa and quickly becomes organized. By the 10th it is a depression, and later that day Tropical Storm Danielle. Moving west at 29 mph, Danielle strengthens to 65 mph, but weakens and turns NE quickly before impacting the islands.

Hurricane Earl
July 11-20
165 mph
912 MB
A wave off of Africa becomes a tropical storm at first light on July 11th, much like how Isabel of 2003 was born. By the 12th, it is an 85 mph hurricane with a clear eye. It comes through the Island of Grenada with 90 mph winds and 103 mph gusts. Damage is modest. It then loses it's eye and moves WNW towards Cuba. It hits Cuba near the Bay of Pigs on the 16th with winds of 125 mph and gusts up to as high 154 mph. It then enters the GOM on the morning of the 17th. With Frances gone, the Gulf of Mexico is an 86 degree hurricane breeding ground. Earl strengthens back from it Cuba-weaken 115 mph to 125 mph on the afternoon of the 17th. It does so while doing a quick N, E, S, WNW loop about 150 miles due west of Naples. It then moves NW towards Louisiana all night on the 17th-early 18th. It strengthens from 135 mph to 165 mph quickly up until landfall near Cameron, LA. Winds hit 165 mph there, gusting as high as 201 mph. A surge of 27.4 feet comes right up Vermillion Bay. By the 20th, Earl is up in Canada. It has left it's mark. Forever.

Hurricane Frances
July 11-14
90 mph
980 MB
A wave in the Eastern GOM becomes TD#6 on the evening of the 11th, and a tropical storm by the next morning. It moves due west at 6 mph, strenthening steadily until landfall as a 90 mph hurricane near Marco Island, FL. Surge in Naples is only 12 feet, but causes flooding. Winds blow at landfall to 89 mph, and gust to 100 mph. Damage is modest from Frances.

Hurricane Gaston
Aug 2-10
105 mph
964 MB
A wave the size of Hurricane Floyd moves off of Africa on the morning of Aug 1st, and becomes a tropical depression 24 hours later. Then it becomes Tropical Storm Gaston on the evening of the 2nd. Gaston has spectacular outflow and is pulling air in from all directions on the 3rd as it reaches 60 mph. Behind it is the much smaller Hermine, giving it a look like the face of a watch against a basketball. The forecast calls for what the NHC says is "UNBELIEVEABLE STRENGTHENING". The NHC has it at a current 65 mph and in five days being just east of the islands at 150 mph. The enviornment looks flawless. Gaston forms a perfect eye and on the 4th, strengthens from 70 mph to 100 mph in six hours. The forecast bumps up to 160 mph in four days. But, Gaston stops strengthening. It peaks out at 105 mph and 964 MB. It turns north due to the collapse of a ridge, and misses the islands by a hair. It moves out to sea and dissapates on the 10th.

Hurricane Hermine
Aug 5-15
140 mph
938 MB
A wave the size of the 1935 hurricane quickly follows Gaston and becomes Tropical Storm Hermine by the evening of the 5th. It is moving due west at a fast 23 mph. By the 6th, it has strengthened rapidly to 90 mph. It is forecast to strengthen into a 120 mph storm. TWC and NHC all go on "Tropical Alert" as two potential storms threaten the islands. If forecasts are right, a 160 mph storm will hit the northern islands (GASTON) and a 120 mph will follow soon after (HERMINE). Hermine continues as Gaston moves north, and stops strengthening due to a slight cool wake left by Gaston. But, on the night of the 9th, Hermine strengthens from 85 mph to 140 mph. It continues towards the islands and hits Barbados at full strength. One image that afternoon shows the eye clear cut, with a tiny dot of Barbados right in it. Barbados suffers GREAT damage. Hermine then weakens to 135 mph and moves north away from land. It weakens and is gone by the 15th.

Hurricane Ivan
Aug 14-25
145 mph
935 MB
A very small wave moves off of Africa on the 11th, and rapidly stengthens to a 65 mph tropical storm by the 14th. On the morning of the 15th, the first visible image shows a well formed eye. Overnight, Ivan has strengthened from 65 mph to 100 mph. Now labeled by the NHC and TWC as a 'VERY DANGEROUS STORM", Ivan moves NW at 26 mph. It fluctuates between the 16th and the 21st at 85 mph-105 mph with a steady and quick NW movement. The NHC takes Hurricane Ivan up to 125 mph, then has it weakening to 100 mph by landfall in the Outer Banks. However, many our not worried. But, on the morning of the 22nd, Ivan strengthens from 105 mph to 125 mph. People watch in awe as each new image shows a better eye. It then hits 145 mph and 935 mb. It is still 24 hours away from the coast. People in the Outer banks prepare for a category 3 of 120 mph, which the NHC still expects. Then, they up their forecast on the morning of the 23rd to 130 mph at landfall. With no weakening in sight, and landfall only 6 hours away, NHC forecasts 145 mph, inland 145 mph, then inland 75 mph. Ivan weakens in the last hours of landfall to 135 mph, and hits much farther south than expected in Cape Fear, NC due to an unexpected and quick westerly turn. Ivan disappears on the 25th. Damage in NC is VERY BAD.

Tropical Storm Jeanne
Sept 4-7
60 mph
992 MB
A wave in the SW Caribbean sea takes shape 150 miles south of the tip of eastern Cuba on the 4th. It becomes TD#10, then Tropical Storm Jeanne later that evening. Jeanne hits the eastern tip of Cuba as a 50 mph tropical storm, and then weakens to 35 mph as it goes off the coast of Florida on the 5th. By the evening of the 6th, Jeanne makes landfall near St. Augustine, FL as a 60 mph storm. It almost had an eye, but it was just for a few frames. Damage is light as Jeanne breaks up on the 7th.

Hurricane Karl
Sept 6-16
150 mph
934 MB
A trough near the Azores that helps suck in outflow from Hurricane Ivan, becomes Sub-TD # 11 on the 6th. It stays a TD until the 8th, when it becomes Tropical Storm Karl. Karl moves SW at 5-8 mph strengthening up to a category 2 hurricane with winds of 100 mph on the 10th. It then rapidly strengthens to a category 4 with 135 mph winds and a 938 MB pressure. It's odd track makes it have a direct category 4 hit on San Juan, PR. Gusts are up to 156 mph there. By the morning of the 11th, it is south of Jamacia, weakened to 120 mph, but re-intensifies to 150 mph and 934 MB right before landfall south of Cancun, MX on the evening of the 12th. Winds there gust up to 168 mph! It then enters the GOM the next morning on the 13th, and moves North through the GENERALLY favorable Gulf of Mexico. While some models like the GFDL take Karl to 903 MB south of Louisiana, Karl weakens more on the 13th from 130 mph to 120 mph. By the 14th, landfall is set on the FL/AL border. Weakening rapidly, Karl makes a hard hit landfall near Gulf Shores, AL on the afternoon of the 15th. Landfall strength is 105 mph and 967 MB. Damage is as bad as Georges. Karl moves inland and weakens and is gone by the 16th. Azores to Alabama is Karl's new nickname.

Tropical Storm Lisa
Sept 19-26
65 mph
990 MB
A wave comes off of Africa on the 19th, and is a tropical storm 24 hours later. Lisa moves erratic for five days and then turns west after a peak of 65 mph, and weakens 200 miles south of the Azores.

Tropical Storm Matthew
Oct 4-8
60 mph
988 MB
A low north of Bermuda forms into SubTropical Matthew on October 4th. The next day it becomes a 60 mph storm of tropical origin. Matthew then moves NNE at 5 mph for a few days. Then it weakens and is gone by the 8th.

Hurricane Nicole
Oct 16-28
140 mph
945 MB
A low off the coast of Florida rapidly becomes Tropical Storm Nicole on the 17th. Nicole then strengthens to 80 mph and comes inland near St. Augustine, FL on the 20th. Nicole weakens to 60 mph on the 21st, and turns SW due to a ridge dipping and pushing everything slightly south as it did for Isidore in 2002. Over the warm Gulf waters, Nicole re-strengthens to 100 mph and scapes the coast of the Yucatan, with the southern eyewall raking the entire north coast on the 23rd. By the 24th, nicole is strengthening rapidly in the Bay of Campeche. It goes from 105 mph to 140 mph in 12 hours. Pressure bottoms out at 945 MB, and Nicole stalls on the 25th. On the evening of the 26th, Nicole comes inland at Veracruz, MX as a 125 mph category 3 hurricane. It is a large storm, and flooding is a problem. Nicole dies over Mexico on the 28th. Damage from Nicole is very bad.

Hurricane Otto
Nov 10-14
100 mph
966 MB
A low in the SW Caribbean sea rapidly beomes a TD then a TS on the 10th. Otto then strnegthens steadily while stalling on the 12th. On the 13th, Otto makes landfall near Belize City, Belize at 100 mph and 968 MB. Damage is light as Otto soon dies over Mexico on the 14th.

FINAL TALLY:
15 Named Storms
10 Hurricanes
6 Major Hurricanes
USA LANDFALLS: 7
USA HURRICANES: 6
USA MAJORS: 2
RETIRED STORMS: 6
Charley
Earl
Frances
Ivan
Karl
Nicole
Every year I make these. I have been working on this one for two weeks. They may seem unbelieveable, but are interesting to read. I hope you enjoy it. WONDER WHAT 2005 WILL BE???

[Storm Man]

Nice Work! How Did You Do Last Year?
How Do You Come Up With Your Dates And Places?

[Anonymous]

Just gut feelings and hunches. The big ones for my predictions last year were Fabian, Juan and Mindy. I was right with Fabian and Juan! Will I be right with Earl, Ivan and Nicole?

[Hurricanehink]

That's a really bold forecast... It seems reasonable, though only one storm seems unplausable to me. I remember reading somewhere that a subtropical storm can only reach category 2 strength, or low category 3 strength, because the core began cool. I'm not sure, but I think there's a limit for Subtropical storms. Most others seem possible. Time will tell... (though I hope there won't be too many deaths or damage).

[Anonymous]

Well, Erika reached 80-90 mph. Offical report has landfall at 75 mph. I think it hit at 75 mph, but briefly hit 90 mph before that. I mean look at it:

[bahamaswx]

An exercise in futility.

on the other hand, you have earl and frances forming at a date EARLIER than danielle... which of course doesnt make sense.

[wxman57]

I don't think the early season will be nearly as active as last year. Alex may well not form until August. In any case, I've been thinking that Charley may well be a big NW Gulf storm, probably TX - but not until mid to late August.

Yep, it's all guesses and hunches at this time. I'll be more certain around Nov. 30.

[Stormsfury]

That's a really bold forecast... It seems reasonable, though only one storm seems unplausable to me. I remember reading somewhere that a subtropical storm can only reach category 2 strength, or low category 3 strength, because the core began cool. I'm not sure, but I think there's a limit for Subtropical storms. Most others seem possible. Time will tell... (though I hope there won't be too many deaths or damage).

You're very right, Hurricanehink ... most all subtropical class storms generally do not max out above 65 mph, although, there have been a couple of exceptions with a subtropical system reaching winds of 74 mph ... a notable one was #6 (Subtropical Storm One in 1968) with maximum sustained winds reached 80 mph, but remained classified as a subtropical storm.

1968 Best Track Text Plot Outputs

SF

[Anonymous]

Hey, what about my Gaston/Hermine ticket? AKA- Gaston and Hermine? People, write your own. I enjoy reading others.

[bahamaswx]

If the ridge collapses, and Gaston moves out to sea, why doesn't Hermine follow? Weird.

[Anonymous]

Hermine does, it just is too far south at first and still clifs Barbados.

[Anonymous]

Pretty Neat !

How about making one of those storms hit S.C. between Charleston and Savannah ?

[Anonymous]

No, I had Isidore hit SC in 2002. LOL
I think i have the Charley one as a mid-summer storm that packs a punch. Afer the way Keith and bret gained strength so quick, WHO KNOWS...

[Anonymous]

EVERYBODY... WRITE YOUR OWN!!!

[Anonymous]

Karl wil be quite bad.

[cycloneye]

There is a thread in this forum that the theme is to name the big ones in 2004.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 31&start=0

[Anonymous]

I know.

[HURAKAN]

I just want to say, Floydbuster, can I see your forecast for last year?

Sandy Delgado

[Anonymous]

Yes, I will try to find it.

[Anonymous]

I can not find it. I have now started to save them on my computer. The old one let me see if I can remember...

Ana-Cat 1 in FL???
Bill-TS In SW CARIBBEAN
Claudette 100 mph hurricane in Caribbean Sea.
Danny- FORGET
Erika-FORGET
Fabian- Storm that takes a track like Debby in 2000 was upposed to, and hits SE FL at category 4.
Grace-Cat 2-3 in Atlantic
Henri-110 mph fish
Isabel- TS in FL I think LOL
Juan-Category 5 near Corpus Christi, TX
Kate-Cat 3 in Carribbean
Larry-Cat 2 In Carribban
Mindy-CAT 5 IN SW CARIBBEAN
I FORGET MOST BUT I AM SURE OF Bill, Claudette, Fabian, Henri, Juan, Kate and Mindy.