Potential for Carribean/Gulf storm increasing...

[Vortex]

Models are beginning to latch on to something brewing over the western carribean....At this time the diffluence created by the ULL is enhancing the convection with a MLC possibly forming about 160 miles SW of the Caymans. At present models take this moisture NW very slowly over the next 3-5 days. Given the set-up current and forecasted this would favor a significant rain event for the centeral Gulf coast mid-late week at the very least....12z GFS at h-84. More later...

[Vortex]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

[Vortex]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_096l.gif

[Stormcenter]

Thanks Vortex. It does look more and more impressive by the hour, IMO.

Click on link below.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[PTrackerLA]

Hmm this is getting a bit interesting. This might have the chance to be our first real event of the season, stay tuned!

edit: Just looked at the vis. loop, starting to look a little "twisty" west of grand cayman.

[Stormsfury]

The system is still producing outflow boundaries busting out westward from the western side of the MCV ... and the GFS stands alone in developing a compact system in that range ... which leads me to believe that the trend continues with the GFS and convective feedback problems.

But it's looking like a given that increased moisture will impinge somewhere along the GOM coastline ... the ECMWF takes the mid/upper system into Central Mexico in 4-5 days ... the ETA maintains the wave structure appearance at the end of the 84 hr period ...

SF

[Dave C]

The area actually made it into the TPC 11:30 Atlantic outlook. The best rotation seems to be the upper-low on the west side of the convective area. If the upper-low moves away some and the convection persists with what appears to be lighter upper winds (cirrus appears to be fanning out clockwise north of it) then maybe????

[HURAKAN]

Yesterday we had the disturbed weather in the GOM, today what catches the attention is the system in the Caribbean. Interesting year? I don't know if it will develop or not but it looks like the Cayman Islands are getting soaked, not looking like a Caribbean Paradise.

Sandy Delgado

[bbadon]

Isn't this interesting, Notice the direction of the wind? Hm. http://www.wunderground.com/global/JM.html

[Stormcenter]

Hmmmmm can this be Alex in the making?


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... 4-loop.htm

[lilbump3000]

Maybe when it gets in the gulf by the beginning of next week, it might have a better chance to develop. Right now its just a tropical wave interacting with an upper low over the yucatan.

[Josephine96]

I think it could be Alex in the making..

It's beginning to look more impressive..

[Stormsfury]

I think it could be Alex in the making..

It's beginning to look more impressive..

The upper system is ... strong northerly winds aloft are carving out quite a sharp trough in the GOM/NW Caribbean and enhancing the convection further ... there's a very narrow band of s/w ridging between where yesterday's MCV was just off the coast of Mexico, and the current upper low which is beginning to wrap up ... furthermore, the dry air is enhancing the convection, much like a dryline would ...

Two loops for your viewing pleasure
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... vjava.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

SF

[vbhoutex]

The first loop tells me there will be some disappointed people this evening when the system doesn't pop. There is dry air starting to be pulled into the system from the SW. This doesn't mean it won't develop down the road, but it sure will inhibit it in the short term.

[Steve]

I agree SF, but some of the long range models were predicting ridging over the Gulf after the weekend (waiting for the ULL/trof split to back away I suppose). I checked a bunch of upper air charts this morning and some are still hinting at the possibility. Clearly the trof and ULL have to get out of the way, but we won't really know if the future holds anything in store for that 'system' until Saturday at the earliest.

Steve

[cycloneye]

As I said in my update of storm2k this afternoon that upper low as long it is in the area nothing will happen that will form into anything but of course it has to be watched only because the area is favored climo in june.

[Stormcenter]

I think it could be Alex in the making..

It's beginning to look more impressive..

The upper system is ... strong northerly winds aloft are carving out quite a sharp trough in the GOM/NW Caribbean and enhancing the convection further ... there's a very narrow band of s/w ridging between where yesterday's MCV was just off the coast of Mexico, and the current upper low which is beginning to wrap up ... furthermore, the dry air is enhancing the convection, much like a dryline would ...

Two loops for your viewing pleasure
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... vjava.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

SF

What's your point? No one is saying that this is a tropical system at the moment. All I'm saying that the potential is there not that it IS going to definitely develop into something.

[HURAKAN]

At this moment we just have a tropical wave interacting with an upper level low. What I see interesting is that the convection have been persistant over the last 24 hours. If the low pressure dissipates or moves away and we have a hospitable environment with weak shear, then something may happen. But as we can see several factors have to coincide to see the evolution of Alex. Let see what happens.

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/adcbin ... sattype=vr

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/adcbin ... n=atlantic

Sandy Delgado

[Stormsfury]

The POINT is ... the GFS is only ONE MODEL, and it's continuing to experience gridscale convective feedbacks errors ... NOT ONE OTHER MODEL even REMOTELY develops a feature like the GFS does ... NOT ONE. IF the ULL begins to depart, the system loses its enhancement through divergent shear and the system will basically go POOF ... just like yesterday's MCV ... This is a dynamically driven MCV, and based on MR guidance, aside from increasing moisture yet again somewhere along the GOM coast, the system simply will not have enough time to consolidate "tropically speaking".

I think it could be Alex in the making..

It's beginning to look more impressive..

The upper system is ... strong northerly winds aloft are carving out quite a sharp trough in the GOM/NW Caribbean and enhancing the convection further ... there's a very narrow band of s/w ridging between where yesterday's MCV was just off the coast of Mexico, and the current upper low which is beginning to wrap up ... furthermore, the dry air is enhancing the convection, much like a dryline would ...

Two loops for your viewing pleasure
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... vjava.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

SF

What's your point? No one is saying that this is a tropical system at the moment. All I'm saying that the potential is there not that it IS going to definitely develop into something.

[Josephine96]

Thank you for the clarification SF