I'm excited!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Stormcenter]

Hey even though this is not an organized tropical
system it's still making me excited.
It's the closest thing I've seen to a TD or TS
is 8 months!!!!!!!!!!!!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Josephine96]

still looks a little elongated but convection may indeed be building a little. Lets' see if it can get it's act together and become a storm..

[HURAKAN]

Now everyone is excited, and then tomorrow poof!
And then everyone starts to talk about something new and on and on, until something really develops.

Sandy Delgado

[Stormcenter]

Now everyone is excited, and then tomorrow poof!
And then everyone starts to talk about something new and on and on, until something really develops.

Sandy Delgado

Hey can you blame us? It's the slow time of the year.

[HURAKAN]

Now everyone is excited, and then tomorrow poof!
And then everyone starts to talk about something new and on and on, until something really develops.

Sandy Delgado

Hey can you blame us? It's the slow time of the year.

I don't blame anyone since I also get excited but that's reality.

Sandy Delgado

[Rainband]

THE ULL has to be out of the picture for anything to develop

[GalvestonDuck]

THE ULL has to be out of the picture for anything to develop

The ULL had to LULL?

[Rainband]

the ULL had to LULL?

[KatDaddy]

Well it is the most exciting forecast discussion so far. I have not check the other GOM forecast discussion

BELIEVE THE CWA WILL EXPERIENCE
THE TYPICAL SUBSIDENCE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW SUN-TUE.
0Z GFS WAS MUCH FARTHER TO THE WEST WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THIS UPPER
TROUGH BY MID WEEK WHICH WOULD HAVE PUT THE CWA ON THE WETTER SIDE.
HOWEVER...12Z GFS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z UKMET WITH KEEPING
THE UPPER WEAKNESS OVER THE WESTERN GULF. MEANWHILE IT APPEARS
TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE PULLED UP INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WHERE UPPER
ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT. A FEW OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DO HINT AT SURFACE
LOW FORMING AND MOVING NORTH TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TUESDAY.
THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE PROGGED UPPER PATTERN WOULD PUSH BEST
MOISTURE INTO THE SERN US. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE CHANCE POP
GOING FOR WEDNESDAY OVER THE EAST FOR CONSISTENCY...BUT NEXT SHIFT
MAY CONSIDER LOWERING THIS IF THE NEXT ROUND OF MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW UPPER THE WEAKNESS TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.

[Rainband]

when more models and discussions start honking..I will be a little more interested. Ok so I am interested Thanks for the Info

[dixiebreeze]

Love the picture of Pres. Reagan, Rainband. And, yes, the Caribbean is starting to shake up the tropics a bit.

[Rainband]

Love the picture of Pres. Reagan, Rainband. And, yes, the Caribbean is starting to shake up the tropics a bit.

Thanks Dixie.i HAVE NEVER and probably NEVER will again..have so much Respect for a politician... I really will miss that man. Back on Topic. I think the area needs to be watched The current conditions aren't that great but as it goes into the GOm things MAY change!

[HURAKAN]

THE NHC STILL DOESN'T GET EXCITED!

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS/TPC NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT THU JUN 10 2004

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDRSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE AREA. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED HERE OR
ELSEWHERE THROUGH FRIDAY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


Sandy Delgado

[GalvestonDuck]

THE NHC STILL DOESN'T GET EXCITED!

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS/TPC NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT THU JUN 10 2004

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDRSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE AREA. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED HERE OR
ELSEWHERE THROUGH FRIDAY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


Sandy Delgado

Nope, NHC excitement is not expected through Friday.

I give 'em til Sunday to get uppity.

[whereverwx]

i just hope it turns into something

[HurricaneBill]

The ULL had to LULL?

Either that, or convert into a tropical low itself. It happens occasionally.

I think it happened in 1994 when a ULL in the Gulf suddenly converted into a tropical depression and then became Tropical Storm Beryl.

[Rainband]

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/r ... l1994.html

[lilbump3000]

I think this will become Alex, but briefly.

I think the system might develop once it gets into the central gulf, and brielfy become tropical storm alex before making landfall somewere on the central gulf coast in louisiana.

[Rainband]

Unless the pattern changes ..that seems unlikely. Can you explain please?? Thanks

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Josephine96]

LOL.. The NHC sometimes takes a lot longer to get excited then we would