FXUS62 KMFL 101751
AFDMIA
SOUTH FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
150 PM EDT THU JUN 10 2004
.DISCUSSION...
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TODAYS ACTIVITY ENHANCED BY WEAK H5 TROUGH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES SOUTH TO APALACHEE BAY. POSITION OF THE RIDGE AXIS IS AND
WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN IMPORTANT DETERMINING FACTOR FOR TIMING OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AS IT USUALLY IS DURING THE WET SEASON
FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. RIDGE AXIS TODAY IS NORTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA BUT
THE POSITION IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTH TO ABOUT LAKE OKEECHOBEE ON
FRIDAY...TO A BROWARD COLLIER LINE ON SATURDAY...AND A DADE MAINLAND
MONROE LINE ON SUNDAY. THEREFORE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
BEGIN SATURDAY TO FAVOR THE METRO EAST COAST COUNTIES IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS AND BE MORE OF A MORNING AND MID DAY
OCCURRENCE OVER THE GULF COAST AND INTERIOR COUNTIES INTO THE
WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS SHOWN ON
THE MESOETA NEAR 2 INCHES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE PW IS
FORECAST BY THE GFS TO DROP BACK TO AROUND 1.7 INCHES OVER THE
SOUTHERN PENINSULA FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
MOVES WEST FROM THE BAHAMAS. INDEED THE NASSAU SOUNDING THIS MORNING
AT 12Z SHOWED ONLY 1.5 INCHES OF PW...DOWN FROM 1.7 INCHES WEDNESDAY
SO THE DRIER AIR SEEMS REAL. GFS RUNS LATER THAN MESOETA SO PERHAPS
NASSAU SOUNDING DID NOT MAKE IT INTO MESOETA. WILL TREND POPS BACK
TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY...WHICH IS STILL A HEALTHY 40 PERCENT THIS TIME
OF YEAR EACH DAY FOR THE EAST COAST AND CLOSE TO 50 PERCENT INLAND
AND GULF COAST...FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS TRENDS TOWARD THE GFS
BUT STILL GIVES SOME CREDIT TO PERSISTENCE. GFS MAV POPS SEEM TOO
LOW.
WANT TO MENTION THAT THE GFS IS SHOWING SOME SMALL DISTURBANCES
MOVING NORTH FROM THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ALSO. AT THIS TIME AM NOT PERSUADED TO
BELIEVE THIS BUT BEARS WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE MRF CONTINUES THE CURRENT PATTERN WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS RIGHT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH TUESDAY...MOVING
BACK TO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL
STAY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY POPS THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEGUN THEIR PATTERN WHERE PERSISTENCE IS A GOOD FORECAST MOST OF THE
TIME.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHEAST WIND 10 KNOTS WILL DOMINATE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
SATURDAY BUT AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES SOUTH...WINDS WILL BE MORE
VARIABLE AND LIGHT. LAND AND SEA BREEZES WILL BE PREVALENT WITHIN 15
MILES OF THE COASTLINE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MORE
NUMEROUS AT NIGHT AS THEY INCREASE OVER THE LAND AREAS DURING THE
DAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 75 89 75 90 / 40 30 20 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 77 88 77 88 / 40 30 20 40
MIAMI 76 89 76 89 / 40 30 20 40
NAPLES 73 90 74 90 / 40 40 20 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
50
$$
Thoughts and comments welcomed.
Robert
