Is this wave the one GFS is picking up at east atlantic?

[cycloneye]

http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/pdus/AI/200 ... 0AI1_g.jpg

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg

At links above you can see the 12:00 UTC full disk pic and the color pic.Yes so far all the waves that haved emerged the Western African coast haved poofed with only weak waves left as they travel thru the Atlantic and reach the lesser antilles bringing them plenty of rain that are above normal rainfall of what they haved seen in past years for this time of the year.But as I see this impulse emerge Africa and concides with something that the GFS model has shown in recent runs about a low pressure moving from the eastern atlantic westnorthwestward then the question is if this is the one they are picking up.Now in the comming hours we will see it weaken for sure but then we have to watch if it refires again and if that happens then we have to watch it and see how the dry air and the shear will play into it but for now I dont expect anything however only to watch it and see how it all evolves in comming days and if other models begin to pick what the GFS is showing or it is an overagressive form of that model.

[cycloneye]

Anyone wants to replie and make a comment about this?

[Steve H.]

Yes, I'm sure it is Luis. But the Model loses it after 5 days. Convective feedback likely the culprit, but these waves can develop in the western atlantic as they cross 50W. Still watching the Area near the Yucatan though. Some hint of LL rotation, but its masked by convection. I would watch it in the GOM. BTW, I couldn't view the Dundee site (forgot my password ).

[cycloneye]

Yes, I'm sure it is Luis. But the Model loses it after 5 days. Convective feedback likely the culprit, but these waves can develop in the western atlantic as they cross 50W. Still watching the Area near the Yucatan though. Some hint of LL rotation, but its masked by convection. I would watch it in the GOM. BTW, I couldn't view the Dundee site (forgot my password ).

Yes too early for the east atlantic to get cranking as water temps are not so warm 76F-78F although they are getting slowly into the borderline of 80*F.You are right about west of 50w because from that longitud westward those SST'S are more warmer.I wonder how that east atlantic area will look like when august and september arrives if from past weeks we haved seen some big waves emerging the African Coast..

[HURAKAN]

In the last 4 years 2 tropical depressions have developed in the eastern atlantic. Even though they didn't became strong tropical systems, for a tropical wave is a big step to go up to tropical depression stage. I believe if the wave stays around 10N it will have the possibility to develop, now, if it starts to go up then suddenly it will poof!!.





Sandy Delgado

[cycloneye]

http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/pdus/AI/200 ... 0AI1_g.jpg

This is the 00:00 UTC full disk pic and shows the wave at least mantaining convection over 12 hours after it came off west Africa.Let's see in comming hours how this wave does.I hate these 6 hours intervals from meteosat as I prefer 3 hours intervals.Also the area is south of 10n and that may limit development.

[Derek Ortt]

The COA is actually quite favorable this time of year as a monsoon trough sets up. However, due to a strong ridge, the waves usually move quite rapidly and mvoe out of the monsoon trough and into the very hostile CA, where they dissipate almost immediately