Nah really, I've been on a 50/50 kick with this system despite overwhelming evidence that any chance of development was remote. But I have maintained (along with many other posters) that whether or not it popped, there was a Northern Gulf rain event of tropical origin - mostly at its worst east of me (used Plaquemines Parish, LA to Panama City Beach, FL as the 2-3" and isolated 5+ areas). I've been saying "weak" possibly classified system (at most 40-45k) if a surface low formed. I went over to Accupro this morning and read a special update by Joe B. He's due in New Orleans for the Met conference on Tuesday. So I don't know if that's playing into his forecast (like it sometimes does with everyone), knowing that his kid is a fanatic and would probably go ape-youknowwhat if he saw tropical deluges. But in any event, here's a paraphrase from his commentary today as posted at flhurricane. If nothing else, it's a headsup to watch that none of us really needs since we watch and disect everything out there. FWIW:
He think's the system will develop an eastern side that has tropical storm or near tropical storm winds and should be a "typical" June type hybrid. He thinks it will come up between 90 and 92 west Monday afternoon or night with rainfall in SE LA of up to 5" by Tuesday am (his scheduled arrival time). He doesn't think the west or center will have much if any action, but that the Eastern side will be nasty. He doesn't want to speculate if it's going to be named or not, but cautioned everyone from SE LA to Appalachicola to keep an eye on this. He referenced Bill and Allison where 36 hours before landfdall, there wasn't much idea in the public realm. The biggest effects will be rain, but he expects tropical storm conditions east of whereever the center goes in, but can't yet say if it will close off or not.
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Anyway, there's a little fuel for the tropical-hungry tank. Joe B's coming out with some specifics that are already more detailed than what anyone else is saying. He said he'd have an update later today. If I happen to check it out (which I won't really have time to until after 5pm), I'll report if there are any changes, modifications, updates or conclusions.
Steve
