8:30 AM EDT Storm2k Special Tropical Disturbance Statement

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jun 12, 2004 7:38 am

Nothing imminent this morning to develop but things may change if all factors combine. Read the statement and any comments are welcomed.Remember this is not official because the NHC are the source for information.

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/s2kforecast.html

Matthew5 · #2 Postby **Matthew5** » Sat Jun 12, 2004 7:44 am

The system seems to be forming a LLCC/MLC like Dr.Steve lyons said on the last tropical update. This system is slowly but surely coming together which is becoming better organized. In with in the last few hours deep convection has started not only to form to its south but over it. This system reminds me alot of tropical storm Bill of last year main reason is a upper low to the west of the Bill this also has a upper low. I think tropical development is up around 60 percent with this.

Very good discussion Cycloneye keep up the good work.

Aquawind · #3 Postby **Aquawind** » Sat Jun 12, 2004 8:23 am

Wow.. Cycloneye jumping on the SSTDS!! Yeah Baby.. Looking like someone is gonna get a gully washer either way..Haiti and DR would have appreciated early notice.. :wink:

The Tropical Models are have no clue yet.

http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/

The GFS showing north gulf soakage with what would look to be a sheared or convection displaced from any center kinda system.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... 2004061200

Something to Watch for sure given location and potential like we have experienced already this year.

Matthew5 · #4 Postby **Matthew5** » Sat Jun 12, 2004 8:29 am

Yes that storm that hit Hati, had a LLCC that was as clear as day on both the visible in quickscat. I really do not went to get into this because this may of been one of the deadest storms since Mitch :grr:

#5 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jun 12, 2004 8:30 am

Well Aquawind here the storm2k has it's own decisions about when to post those statements and in this case I decided to post one ahead of what the NHC might do in comming hours.I know it is a risk going ahead of the official word but I thought it was nessessary this morning.

Matthew5 · #6 Postby **Matthew5** » Sat Jun 12, 2004 8:33 am

You made a good call this time cycloneye.

Aquawind · #7 Postby **Aquawind** » Sat Jun 12, 2004 8:39 am

cycloneye wrote:Well Aquawind here the storm2k has it's own decisions about when to post those statements and in this case I decided to post one ahead of what the NHC might do in comming hours.I know it is a risk going ahead of the official word but I thought it was nessessary this morning.

I hear ya.. 8-)

Anonymous · #8 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Jun 12, 2004 8:53 am

Matthew5 wrote:The system seems to be forming a LLCC/MLC like Dr.Steve lyons said on the last tropical update. This system is slowly but surely coming together which is becoming better organized. In with in the last few hours deep convection has started not only to form to its south but over it. This system reminds me alot of tropical storm Bill of last year main reason is a upper low to the west of the Bill this also has a upper low. I think tropical development is up around 60 percent with this.

Very good discussion Cycloneye keep up the good work.

Now if Steve Lyons is chiming in on it, Then it must at least have a chance considerring TWC's lack of coverage... Good discussion Cycloneeye-I dont see this being more than a heavy rain maker like Bill '03 either... Unfortunately, by the first model run, looks like its going to areas that dont really need it vs. moving up through fla and giving drought strikken ga/carolinas beneficial rains

WXBUFFJIM · #9 Postby **WXBUFFJIM** » Sat Jun 12, 2004 8:59 am

Whether this becomes a TD or TS Alex or not, heavy rains is a big problem. While Georgia and parts of Florida need it, Louisiana most certainly don't. Both areas may see 6 inches or more of rain Sunday evening through Monday morning. That means some pretty significant flooding I'm afraid.

Jim

PTPatrick · #10 Postby **PTPatrick** » Sat Jun 12, 2004 9:04 am

Not that I am all that, but if I lived by Steve Lyons I dont know that I would have survived Hurricane Georges on this bayou, or even Isidore for that matter. I am sure the man is educated and brilliant and all that good stuff...but generally my own quasi forecasting comes out better than the chicken dropping forecasts that he does. I mean really...if it were up to him...NOTHING would ever be ANYTHING significant...he wants to diminish every storm into a heavy rainmaker unless it is a cat 3. I know I sound bitter...but he just annoys me. Its like, lets look at the satalite pic and say the exact opposite of what is going on because we dont want to alarm people unecessarily...meanwhile, a storm forms and he is all, "well, you guys better head for the hills like we have been saying for 2 days"...PUUUHHLLEEEAAAASSEE...Rant over

Now my take...
Looks we will see a storm in the way of Bill, Barry, Gordon, Hanna, Earl...that is, hybrid without much of an western side. Not terrible, but could cause troubles...most likeley somewhere from Centeral Lousiana to the Florida Panhandle...I know that the rivers here in south mississippi and in neighboring SE louisiana have been flirting with flood stages for over a month now. So it wouldnt take much to cause trouble.

#11 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jun 12, 2004 9:24 am

Welcome Patrick to the discussions at storm2k.Agree that this will be a one sided system with all the bad weather on the east side.Rain will be the prime threat.

Lindaloo · #12 Postby **Lindaloo** » Sat Jun 12, 2004 9:26 am

Local met here yesterday evening said that the hurricane center is honking on this system too.

PTPatrick, I must have missed all the rain that had the rivers flirting with flood stages. lol. We need the rain here in S. Mississippi.

Matthew5 · #13 Postby **Matthew5** » Sat Jun 12, 2004 9:26 am

Pt, Forgot Alison was a one sided storm to.

#14 Postby **BreinLa** » Sat Jun 12, 2004 9:28 am

Good Morning everyone, keep me posted on the Gulf I didnt even know something was out there

#15 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jun 12, 2004 9:29 am

I will make another statement at 3:00 PM EDT so stay tuned but if events warrant a more earlier one will be posted.

Lindaloo · #16 Postby **Lindaloo** » Sat Jun 12, 2004 9:29 am

LOL Bre! Morning!

#17 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Sat Jun 12, 2004 9:30 am

As I stated in an earlier post, Thank You Cycloneye. If the ULL gets far enough west of the MLC we could see a LLC develop and become a minimal TS. It does have a chance at this point and bears watching.

PTPatrick · #18 Postby **PTPatrick** » Sat Jun 12, 2004 9:38 am

Lindaloo wrote:PTPatrick, I must have missed all the rain that had the rivers flirting with flood stages. lol. We need the rain here in S. Mississippi.

We havn't gotten as much over here in Jackson County Linda, Escatawapa and all them have been fine...but many of the rivers in hancock and harrison went into flood stage a couple weeks ago. My friend on the biloxi river in gulfport almost had water in his house. Anywho, I didnt mean it had been anything major anyway...but you are right, Jackson county, prolly could use the rain.

PS...how'd you like the thunderstorm wednesday a week ago with the hurricane force gust...we lost a tree and an awning.

Lindaloo · #19 Postby **Lindaloo** » Sat Jun 12, 2004 10:15 am

I agree with you. We have been left out of the loop with the rainfall.

That was a monster severe thunderstorm we had on that Wednesday morning. Lost a few limbs out of the oak trees but that is normal for them. :lol:

#20 Postby **MGC** » Sat Jun 12, 2004 10:26 am

We are quite damp over here in Diamondhead. This system just might sneak up on us like Allison did. As I recall, Allison caught the NHC folks by surprise. Did they not call for no development the day before Allison formed? So far the models have done a good job this season forecasting surface lows. The low over Central America and the haiti low are two recent examples of model success. I tend to go with trends so I'd say there is a 50/50 chance that a weak low will form south of Louisiana this weekend. I doubt that it will become Alex though.......MGC

8:30 AM EDT Storm2k Special Tropical Disturbance Statement

8:30 AM EDT Storm2k Special Tropical Disturbance Statement

Not that I am all that...

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