Gulf Of Mexico heating up.....6-12-04 tropical update

[WXBUFFJIM]

A look at the tropics shows a few interesting features, one in the western Pacific and the other developing in the Gulf Of Mexico. Starting off in the western Pacific, Typhoon Chanthu continues to progress towards the west towards central Vietnam. Chanthu is centered about near latitude 14.1 north, longitude 110.2 east. Movement is towards the west northwest at around 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast over the next day or two as the center of Typhoon Chanthu tracks over central Vietnam and is making landfall right now in fact. The big threats with this sytem over central Vietnam will be strong category 1 strength winds and very heavy rain amounts of 1-2 feet as well.

Elsewhere there has been a recent alert issued near either side of a line from 17.7N 66.8E to 18.5N 64.1E within the next day or so. Macimum sustained winds are 30-35 mph right now. Minimum central pressure is estimated near 1004 mb. The chances of a tropical cyclone developing appears good at this time.

Meanwhile the eastern Pacific is relatively quiet tropically speaking. However scattered thunderstorms have developed over the eastern Pacific off the west coast of central America. The chances of development in the eastern Pacific are not that great at this time.

However a very interesting feature in the Gulf Of Mexico this morning. A mid level low has tracked from the northwestern Caribbean Sea into the southern Gulf Of Mexico. If these mid lows persist long enough with convection, they can sometimes transfer it's energy down to the surface. But three things are working against this. First this has been a mid and upper level system with no surface low pressure system noted yet. Secondly winds aloft are still fairly strong. Finally dry air has been entrained into the west side of this system. Could this develop??? It's not impossible if convection persist near the mid level center of circulation. This type of scenario could result in a transfer from the mid levels down to the surface. Whether this develops into a depression/storm or not, very heavy rains are likely in the southeastern United States over the next several days starting later Sunday and lasting into Monday morning. Amounts could exceed 6 inches in places from Louisiana into the Florida Panhandle. This will continue to be monitored.

Jim

[Matthew5]

Wxjim it doe's appear that the mid level cirualtion is becoming better organized. With more in more convection by the hour. Chances are is that this will likely make it to the surface. The shear you talk of is below 15 mph in all areas of the Gulf Of Mexico. The upper low which Bill had with it to should keep this system much a eastern side weather system intill it comes to the coast. We will have to watch.

[WXBUFFJIM]

We'll have to see if convection persists near this mid level low. Indications still indicate this as a wave and not a low pressure system at the surface. It's definitely looking like a big rain maker for the southeastern United States from Florida Panhandle westward through Louisiana with 6 inches or more possible in spots Sunday evening through about Monday morning. All of this could occur whether this system develops or not. We'll see.

Jim

[Matthew5]

Over this system the shear levels are going down. While to the north is what I would think as a outflow channel forming? Maybe a upper level high. http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html


Look to the Southwest of the MLC, there appears to be a rain band.

[Matthew5]

In you say that the Eastern Pacific is quit?

Take a look at the buttom one then say that! http://manati.wwb.noaa.gov/storm_ep_ima ... _ep_0.html This system has a LLCC with a 1.0/1.0 sab number. It is almost a depression.