AFD Mobile this AM................

[Dean4Storms]

000
FXUS64 KMOB 120821
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
320 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

.SHORT TERM...WEATHER MAPS THIS A.M. SHOW AN UPPER RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSING THE SOUTHEAST. FURTHER SOUTH...
INTERESTING DEVELOPMENTS ARE TAKING PLACE. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WAS EMERGING OUT INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF.
AT THE SURFACE...WE SEE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING ACROSS
FLORIDA INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...WE EXPECT
A DIURNAL CYCLE TO THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH FORM AS A RESULT OF
AFTERNOON HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION OF THE LOCAL AIRMASS...WHICH
CONTAINS MORE THAN ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR CONVECTIVE PROCESSES.
MEANWHILE...SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF LOOKS TO BE SHIFTING
POLEWARD WITHIN A GENERAL WEAKNESS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
SOUTHEAST STATES UPPER RIDGE. SHORT RANGE MODELS DIVERGE ON EVOLUTION
OF THIS SYSTEM. ETA TAKES A MID LEVEL LOW...INVERTED TROF NORTHWEST
UP INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE
THE GFS SPINS UP A WEAK SURFACE LOW...MOVING IT NORTHWARD FASTER AND
PLACING IT FURTHER EAST INTO SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
AGAIN...QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE...WHICH EQUATES INTO A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO POSITIONING OF LOW...ITS STRENGTH
AND TIMING. AT THIS TIME...WE FEEL THE ANSWER LIES IN BETWEEN.
REGARDLESS...A DEEP TROPICAL AIRMASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COME
OUT OF THIS EVENT. MAIN GRAPHICAL FORECAST UPDATES INCLUDE INCREASING
PRECIPITATION COVERAGES BY MONDAY AND ADJUSTING QPF. LITTLE OVERALL
CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES.

NOTE...DUE TO SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGING INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF HAS THE POTENTIAL
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM THE TROPICAL
PREDICTION CENTER.

&&

.EXTENDED...DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE AREA OFF THE
GULF... RESULTING IN HIGH RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLS OUT OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MID AND LATE WEEK. THUS...
WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
/10

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO PERSISTS. ACCORDING TO THE ETA AND
GFS...THIS FEATURE WILL HELP STEER A SURFACE LOW INTO THE NORTHWEST
OR NORTH CENTRAL GULF BY EARLY MONDAY...DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU
BELIEVE. DUE TO MUCH UNCERTAINTY...AND WITH SEVERAL MORE MODEL RUNS
TO GANDER...WILL DANCE IN THE MIDDLE AND CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASE
IN ONSHORE WINDS TO 15 KNOTS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND HOLD ONTO
THESE CHOPPY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE FOR
NOW...SINCE 10 TO 15 KNOTS COULD BE ALL WE SEE IF THE ETA IS CORRECT.
EITHER WAY...THE COASTAL WATERS END UP ON THE WET SIDE...SO EXPECTING
AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY. /39




If a TC develops the direction indicated above could change somewhat, everyone from TX to Appalachicola, FL need to stay abreast of this system.

[Brent]

I agree. Even if it hits LA, the worst weather will likely be on the MS/AL/FL Panhandle coastline. For TX, LA/MS/AL.

[Dean4Storms]

One problem I have with this is the timing. I don't see it making it to a landfall by tomorrow night. The steering has not picked up that much yet and I don't foresee it till late tomorrow at best.

[Josephine96]

I think it should be everyone from Texas to Florida period should be watching it..

You never know which way these systems will move.. Tropical systems have minds of their own..

At the very least.. this is going to be a rainmaker for someone..