Severe wx forecast for 6-12-14-04

[WXBUFFJIM]

Severe weather threat today through Monday look pretty widespread and we're now on day #28 with severe weather watches and warnings and we'll add alot more to that as we head on through the weekend and into early next week as well.

For today, expect severe thunderstorms with tornadoes, large hail, and high wind along a cold front from east central Kansas into northwest Missouri, southeast Nebraska and into southwest Iowa as well. This is the same area that got hit hard both on May 22nd, 2004 and on May 29th, 2004.

For Sunday, the cold front stalls with a wave of low pressure riding up along the front in Kansas and into Missouri. This combined with upper level jet streaks and shortwave disturbances will enhance the severe potential. Severe thunderstorms will be widespread again Sunday from eastern Kansas northeastward through northwest Missouri, and throughout most of Iowa and into northern Illinois as well. Large hail, high wind, and more tornadoes can be expected. Some damaging tornadoes are possible in isolated places.

Then on Monday, the severe weather shifts east to include the Mid Atlantic states. More severe weather remains possible over the midwest though as new storms could form.

Why the severe weather????? A significant shortwave disturbance is embedded within a broader cyclonic flow lifting across the north central states and central Canada. This shortwave was responsible for the severe weather we experienced over the past few days across the central United States. For today, a weaker upstream impulse continues to move eastward from the central Rockies and into the Plains. This combined with very unstable air and a subtropical jet feed from the southwest will lead to severe thunderstorms with tornadoes in such communities such as Kansas City, Manhattan, Omaha, and also into some hard hit places of the past such as Bethany and Albany, Missouri.

Upstream from this weaker central Rockies impulse is another amplifying shortwave disturbance over the Great Basin. This combined with very strong heating and instability will aid in supercell development with tornadoes, damaging wind, and hail through Sunday in much the same areas as we're seeing it today. With each shortwave rotating around the base of this broad upper trough will result in more additional severe weather east of the Rockies through early next week. The only difference on Monday will be ongoing clusters of severe thunderstorms occuring over the Ohio Valley area. This will likely propagate east southeastward through Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and into Ohio throughout the day Monday with mainly wind damage being the threat there along the cold front.

A busy weekend is shaping up with the potential for widespread severe weather, not as bad as the Memorial Day Holiday weekend, but still significant enough to pose huge dangers.

Jim