Jacksonville, FL AFD (Tropical Disturbance Information, too)

[ColdFront77]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
204 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 2004

.SHORT TERM...WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SLIDING SOUTH DOWN THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST WITH VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. LATEST LAPS
ANALYSIS SHOWING CAPES IN EXCESS OF 4000J/KG IN THIS AREA. EXPECT
ONGOING CONVECTION OVER SE GEORGIA TO EXPAND WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEABREEZE IN NE FLORIDA AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS
ON.

DIFFUSE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK
AND SHALLOW EASTERLY FLOW REACHING INTO NORTHEAST FLORIDA BY SUNDAY
AM. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY MAY KEEP SOME
SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. WITH
WEAK EASTERLY FLOW SUNDAY...EXPECT SEABREEZE TO PROGRESS MORE
QUICKLY INLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CWA...BEGINNING IN THE MORNING ALONG THE EAST COAST AND
CONCENTRATING FARTHER INLAND BY AFTERNOON.

GREATEST UNCERTAINLY LIES IN FORECAST FOR MON/TUE AND THE PATH OF
THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. GFS
STILL SEEMS TO BE OVERDEVELOPING SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES THE GULF
COAST...BUT EVEN IF THIS IS THE CASE IT APPEARS THAT A DEEP SLUG OF
MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTH EARLY IN THE WEEK. STILL UNCLEAR HOW FAR
EAST THE MOISTURE WILL STRETCH CONSIDERING THE H5 RIDGE SITUATED
OVERHEAD. FOR NOW WILL INCREASE POPS OVER THE WESTERN ZONES FOR
MONDAY TO LIKELY AND KEEPING SCATTERED POPS ELSEWHERE. WILL KEEP
SCATTERED POPS FOR TUESDAY UNTIL EVOLUTION BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.

.LONG TERM...ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED AS TO THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WITH GFS BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE AND FURTHER SOUTH DESPITE PRESENCE OF
H5 RIDGE OVER FLORIDA. WILL PLAY IT CONSERVATIVELY FOR NOW...KEEPING
CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL OVER THE GEORGIA WATERS TONIGHT
THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST/EAST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW
PREVAILING SUNDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE YUCATAN IS
FORECAST TO DRIFT NORTH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE INTENSITY OF THIS FEATURE IS STILL UNCERTAIN...AS WELL
AS ANY INDIRECT IMPACTS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 73 88 71 88 / 40 60 30 60
SSI 77 82 75 85 / 40 50 30 50
JAX 74 87 73 88 / 30 50 30 50
SGJ 75 84 75 85 / 30 40 30 50
GNV 72 91 73 89 / 20 60 30 50
OCF 72 92 73 89 / 20 50 30 50
&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$

CAMP/ZAPPE

[HurricaneGirl]

Looks like there are some pretty good storms firing up in South Georgia right now.

[Anonymous]

Hopefully they will hold together as they move south into Jax area ---been a few days since I've seen any storms now.