Evening Discussion

[Anonymous]

Obviously a lot of ppl will disagree with development potential but what can I say . Sticking to our guns on this one...

IWIC Atlantic Basin Tropical Weather Discussion - 12 June 2004 - 8:15 PM EDT

http://independentwx.com/AL932004.png

A broad low level circulation has developed in the west-central Gulf of Mexico based on visible satellite imagery. The circulation is well-defined, but most of the convection is east of the center. As mentioned in several of our discussions over the past few days, we mentioned that this system will likely be lopsided to the east, and that appears to be happening now. The culprit is the upper low that formed over the western Gulf of Mexico yesterday. The low level center is dealing with light shear and very dry air. These two parameters suggest that the potential for development from this low level center are rather low. In addition, the latest global model runs are in fair agreement that this circulation will either weaken or merge with a stronger surface system to the northeast within a couple days. Based on all of this information, development from this center is not expected. However, any circulation that decides to spin up further east may have to be watched a bit more closely, as more moisture is available to work with. But nothing appears imminent at this time.

The projected track of this system has been a major question mark. One reason is that it is not yet certain where there the dominant circulation will form. It could easily be the one that has recently formed in the western Gulf, but conditions are not as condusive in that area. The most likely target for the heaviest rainfall is southeast Louisiana through the Florida panhandle. But it must be noted that the track could easily shift west to eastern Texas if the western Gulf circulation were to strengthen.

To sum things up, things have become a bit more interesting over the course of the day. But the majority of parameters still don't suggest that development is likely. The NHC will be sending out a reconnaissance aircraft tomorrow, if necessary.

http://independentwx.com/atlanticdiscussion.html

[senorpepr]

Good discussion!

[cycloneye]

A good discussion Jason that I agree with and now let's see what sunday will bring.

[Anonymous]

Upper level shear will also be increasing in the Gulf over the next 24-36 hours due to the s/w...so obviously the window of opportunity is very tight. And looking at it tonight...all I can say is this is far from being a classified tropical cyclone. The current LLC is clinging on to life, being so stripped away from the convection and within the dry air associated with the upper low to the west. We need to see EITHER convection pull closer to this LLC and develop a stable appearance (unlikely given how far the two are) OR have a new LLC form under the main convection and lose the upper level cyclonic flow...and THEN see enough intensification to become a classified storm. All within just 24 hours. Too small of a timeframe for it to develop into TD1 or Alex given its satellite signature tonight. Like we've been saying...just a rainmaker. Chance of development into a TD or TS remains VERY VERY slim.

[hurricanefloyd5]

i cant by that!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[hurricanefloyd5]

i feel that's bullcrap.. The coldfront and shear will die just for a short time so this will form into Tropical Depression#1 or Tropical Storm Alex!!!!!!!!!!

[Stormcenter]

In my opinion there is too much of mess down there for nothing to form.
I still say we'll get TD or TS at best out of this mess. Now as to where that will develop well folks your guess is as good as mine.

[Stormsfury]

Upper level shear will also be increasing in the Gulf over the next 24-36 hours due to the s/w...so obviously the window of opportunity is very tight. And looking at it tonight...all I can say is this is far from being a classified tropical cyclone. The current LLC is clinging on to life, being so stripped away from the convection and within the dry air associated with the upper low to the west. We need to see EITHER convection pull closer to this LLC and develop a stable appearance (unlikely given how far the two are) OR have a new LLC form under the main convection and lose the upper level cyclonic flow...and THEN see enough intensification to become a classified storm. All within just 24 hours. Too small of a timeframe for it to develop into TD1 or Alex given its satellite signature tonight. Like we've been saying...just a rainmaker. Chance of development into a TD or TS remains VERY VERY slim.

The ONLY glimmer of hope for this is

1) Massive Nocturnal Maxima of Convection becomes an MCV that a new LLC can develop closer to the convection
2) System completely stalls
3) A "GRACE"-ious upgrade

I'm sticking with my guns as well ... I just don't see this become "tropical".

TIME SENSITIVE LINK ... GFS/NOGAPS/CMC Ensembles will update sometime during the later morning hours ...

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=31366

i cant by that!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I can ...

i feel that's bullcrap.. The coldfront and shear will die just for a short time so this will form into Tropical Depression#1 or Tropical Storm Alex!!!!!!!!!!

It's not an actual cold front ... it's a mid-level s/w trough that merges with another trough currently producing the severe weather in the Plains States and back in Western TX that's swinging east ... coupled with a potentially developing EPAC system and associated upper level ridging, that same ridging over the EPAC system will enhance the westerly flow across the GOM between it and the trough to the north as the trough swings east and captures the mid/upper low/trough, which then captures the disturbance. Potential profilic rainmaker, yes ... tropical cyclone ... no.

SF

[ColdFront77]

It's not an actual cold front ... it's a mid-level s/w trough that merges with another trough currently producing the severe weather in the Plains States and back in Western TX that's swinging east ... coupled with a potentially developing EPAC system and associated upper level ridging, that same ridging over the EPAC system will enhance the westerly flow across the GOM between it and the trough to the north as the trough swings east and captures the mid/upper low/trough, which then captures the disturbance. Potential profilic rainmaker, yes ... tropical cyclone ... no.

The National Weather Service is calling it a weak cold front, what else could they call it?

[george_r_1961]

Ive been maintaining that chances of development are slim to none. Im thinking a 5 percent chance of it making TD status and less than 1 percent of it ever being a named storm. However if that new LLC forms further east away from the shear...well then all bets are off.

[ColdFront77]

That would mean all bets are off for your percent change being as low as 1% to 5%

[Anonymous]

It's not an actual cold front ... it's a mid-level s/w trough that merges with another trough currently producing the severe weather in the Plains States and back in Western TX that's swinging east ... coupled with a potentially developing EPAC system and associated upper level ridging, that same ridging over the EPAC system will enhance the westerly flow across the GOM between it and the trough to the north as the trough swings east and captures the mid/upper low/trough, which then captures the disturbance. Potential profilic rainmaker, yes ... tropical cyclone ... no.

The National Weather Service is calling it a weak cold front, what else could they call it?

Well temps behind this "front" are insignificant once it gets this far south. It would be better to simply call it a shortwave trough.

[ColdFront77]

I have no reason to disagree... just going by what I (we) hear.