NWS TAMPA & GOM......

[dixiebreeze]

West central and southwest Florida forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay area - Ruskin Florida
114 PM EDT sun Jun 13 2004

Currently...still no convection across the land area of the forecast area.
Depsite very light flow...West Coast sea breeze struggling to move
inland. Really don't understand why?? however...East Coast sea
breeze has moved well inland with some scattered showers...which should
begin to impact interior forecast area soon. The West Coast sea breeze should
activate later this afternoon/evening with scattered showers/thunderstorms too.

Short term (tonight-tues)...main forecast concern continues to be
large middle and upper level circulation currently over the central Gulf.
None of the models appear to initialize the lower level center that
appears to be forming under the upper low center over the central
Gulf. None-the-less...have gone with generally the GFS...which
moves a weak surface low northward toward Louisiana by Monday...continuing
northward into the larger scale surface trough over the central U.S. Tuesday.
Main influence of this system was originally thought to be increased
deep layer moisture...but latest models seem to have backed off
somewhat...keeping best moisture farther west...closer to surface low.
Mav guidance still GOES likely probability of precipitation (~60%) for the north 1/2 of the forecast area
Monday...and have continued that trend...but confidence rather low. By
Tuesday...some drier air tries to work into the S forecast area south of the deep
layer ridge...which now wants to sit over the northern forecast area. Have
continued chance/scattered probability of precipitation for Tuesday...with the highest probability of precipitation over the
north...and the lowest over the S forecast area.

Long term (tue ngt-sun)...upper and surface ridging build back in
over the region in the wake of the low/upper trough. Flow returns
to a more S/southeast direction. Deep moisture remains in place over the
state...with sea breeze collisions allowing more typical scattered
thunderstorms to develop in the afternoon and evening hours. Temperatures stay near
normal through the period.

[ColdFront77]

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