Recon Closes of an LLC - But...

[wxman57]

Yes, it appears that recon HAS closed off an LLC in the western Gulf ... But - the LLC is located about 100nm southwest of that blob of convection that's located about 300 miles southeast of Brownsville, TX. And the highest estimated surface winds are only 10 kts with a 1010mb pressure.

As for that area of squalls that everyone is looking at - they found a south wind at 10 kts on the western side with 1011 mb pressure.

Latest satellite shows increasing separation between the weak LLC and the convection, and the convection is diminishing in coverage and intensity.

So unless there are any major changes out there in the next hour, the NHC will have no choice but to acknowledge that the plane did NOT find a tropical deprssion, just a broad, weak low pressure area detached from the squalls.

However, it will be moving very slowly northward over the next few days, so there's still a pretty good chance it cold become a TD in 24-36 hours. And I guarantee you that if it makes TD strength that the NHC will find a 35kt wind in a squall somewhere and call it Alex. But the main threat will be from rainfall from Louisiana to the Florida panhandle.

Also, I wouldn't focus on the center with this system, as heaviest squalls may well be hundreds of miles north and east of the center when it comes ashore.

[HURAKAN]

13/1745 UTC 23.8N 92.9W T1.0/1.0 93 -- Atlantic Ocean

[Anonymous]

Also, it's looking more elognated on satellite imagery. Dry air and shear will really be taking its toll in the next 36 hours as it moves northward. It's basically now or never.

[wxman57]

That just shows that Dvorak can be unreliable. Recon found SE-S winds throughout that point. No LLC there in the convection.

[dixiebreeze]

Thanks wxman57, very good comments and analysis -- as always.

[Anonymous]

It does have one more chance tomorrow but the s/w is pushing east. The best oppurtunity was today and it failed to take advantage. Looks like a rain event for the central Gulf coast.

[Dean4Storms]

Very good points and agree, the main focus will be east of whatever type center is there as it slowly lifts northward. The biggest threat will be heavy rain, especially inland up into LA, MS and AL and inland FL. Panhandle. Along the coast maybe gale force gusts with threats of F-0 waterspouts, overall not too bad!

[Anonymous]

Very good points and agree, the main focus will be east of whatever type center is there as it slowly lifts northward. The biggest threat will be heavy rain, especially inland up into LA, MS and AL and inland FL. Panhandle. Along the coast maybe gale force gusts with threats of F-0 waterspouts, overall not too bad!

We've been in full agreement and I still like your analysis. The MLC or LLC will have to push NNE or NE between the shortwave and ridge to the east. Shear will likely inhibit any last minute attempts to organize tomorrow.

[vbhoutex]

Does anyone think there is going to be a Cut off low forming near Corpus? It is mentioned in the lastest discussions out of Houston/Galveston NWS.

That LLCC is very obvious on the latest visble and is, as said, far removed from the convection. Not much chance of it becoming much more than a rain event. However, it could be a very significant one for the Central Gulf coast over to the Western FL panhandle.

[wxman57]

Does anyone think there is going to be a Cut off low forming near Corpus? It is mentioned in the lastest discussions out of Houston/Galveston NWS.

That LLCC is very obvious on the latest visble and is, as said, far removed from the convection. Not much chance of it becoming much more than a rain event. However, it could be a very significant one for the Central Gulf coast over to the Western FL panhandle.

There's a tremendous amount of uncertainty with this system, vbhoutex. True, some models move a low in west of Houston, others move it inland into MS/AL. So it may move inland somewhere between Victoria, TX and the Florida Panhandle. But don't focus on the center, if it develops one, as the heavy squalls will move ashore hundreds of miles east of the center. There may be nothing near the center.

[Stormsfury]

Does anyone think there is going to be a Cut off low forming near Corpus? It is mentioned in the lastest discussions out of Houston/Galveston NWS.

That LLCC is very obvious on the latest visble and is, as said, far removed from the convection. Not much chance of it becoming much more than a rain event. However, it could be a very significant one for the Central Gulf coast over to the Western FL panhandle.

David, the MM5, and the global models are closing off a 500mb low along the Southern TX coast in the next 36-48 hours ... All of them ...

SF

[wxman57]

Party's over for today folks. Maybe tomorrow. I'm heading for the house.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS/TPC NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 2004

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA...INDICATES THAT THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE
AREA OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO REMAINS A LITTLE TOO
DISORGANIZED TO UPGRADE TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE HIGHEST
ASSOCIATED SURFACE WINDS ARE LESS THAN 25 MPH. HOWEVER THERE
REMAINS A POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
...IF NECESSARY...ANOTHER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE TOMORROW
MORNING. A LARGE AREA OF RAINFALL ACCOMPANIES THIS SYSTEM WHICH
COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE US GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL STATES
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE