NEW INVEST 94L for wave east of lesser antilles

[cycloneye]

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

Wow it got an invest up this wave that I thought it would not but to say the truth it looks fairly good but it will have to fight the shear to survive the track thru the caribbean.But it will be for sure a rainmaker for the islands.

[lilbump3000]

I cant believe it.

[Rainband]

Wow. Maybe an early start or just a tease. These two areas are a good dress rehersal for the Active season ahead!!!

[Opal storm]

This wave has a long road ahead of it,and a lot of shear too.As always it needs to be watched.

[Ola]

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

Wow it got an invest up this wave that I thought it would not but to say the truth it looks fairly good but it will have to fight the shear to survive the track thru the caribbean.But it will be for sure a rainmaker for the islands.

Not really. Acording to the NHC, upper level winds will stay favorable for this wave/low.

TWD 2:05 reads:

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 50W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. THE
WAVE IS FAVORABLY LOCATED TO THE E OF A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND NEAR THE W PERIPHERY OF A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLC. THIS REGIME IS PRODUCING GOOD MID/UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT FLOW AND HELPING TO PROMOTE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. CURRENTLY...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 44W-52W. THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE WAVE MOVES W AND THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY BE THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURE TO AFFECT THE
LESSER ANTILLES LATE TUESDAY EVENING OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

[Suzi Q]

Ok, key words here as per Opal storm stated-LONG ROAD AHEAD. Let's all try to remain a little bit calmer this time, shall we? LOTS of time to sit and watch. No use posturing theories so early into the game.

[chadtm80]

Wow... I got to admit I am shocked they put an invest up already.. New management over there? lol j/k

[Derecho]

Eh, it's on the western edge of that upper high, and it's a pretty squashed high. Very close to being sheared.

SHIPS never gets it above 25 kts and kills it completely days 4 and 5 on the first model run.

[HURAKAN]

Incredible, I wouldn't believe that tropical wave would catch so much attention. But shear is too strong to let the wave survive.

[Thunder44]

There is strong westerly wind shear ahead over the Lesser Antillies, which I think it's affecting already by giving it outflow on the north side, but when gets closer to it may shread it apart.

[cycloneye]

Let's see what happens with the shear and dry air ahead but it wont be easy for the wave to stay intact thru those conditions unless they fade away and then it will be another story.

[elw]

I agree. The wave will be moving into an area which really isn't that favorable for development.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shrZ.GIF

As you can see there is an area of 40-50 KT southwesterly shear in the upper-levels over the Islands.

The 12z 6/14 ECMWF suggests that deep-layer shear of 20-30 KT will exist over the Islands through the next 48 hours.

http://web.wright-weather.com/wxp-model ... ar_h24.gif
http://web.wright-weather.com/wxp-model ... ar_h48.gif

A little bit too hostile for development, at least in my opinion. It may be just a bit too early to look to this area for development.

[HURAKAN]

It may be just a bit too early to look to this area for development.

Good conclusion.