Brand new developments in Atlantic wave!!!!

[TWXCC]

Check out the water vapor loop and the infared on the GOES Tropical section http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
Am I the only one that notices a huge blob of convection that is moving south and breaking away from the trough? In front of the blob, there is a small batch of dry air, not enough to kill a wave if it wanted to. With the recent development of convection around the center of circ. I think that this wave may have "renforcements" on the way and might become quite impressive over the next couple of days. I think that the NHC/TPC was right when it said that this has a possibility of being the next significant tropical feature.

When Stevie said that dry air was going to kill this wave, I really don't know what he is taling about. I only see a small batch in front of it and a Carib. moisture flow from the SW?
Just some thoughts to ponder.

[Anonymous]

That's not exactly a small batch of dry air...it's enough to kill a weak wave. Most of the convection you're seeing is once again being enhanced by shear. There is more shear ahead too.

[TWXCC]

Whoops!

[PTPatrick]

Yeah...that wave has potential...maybe in about a week. It has way to much sheer to traverse...but if it holds tough through that, then it may have a chance in the caribbean. This time of year anything east of the islands is more or less doomed.

[TWXCC]

Sorry about that faulty statement guys!!! Anyways, thanks for correcting me. Even though there is a good amount of dry air in front of her, there is a brand-new blob of convection around the center. If that continues to develop over night, it may be able to to make it through the night. Definately something to watch.


-Aaron

[TWXCC]

Also, to the north of it, there is a line that is acting as a boundary that seperates the dry air from the "moist" air. If this continues to hold together, it may help the wave survive "some" of the dry air.

[Guest]

How do you know it's a HER?? It may be a him or an it!! Or a Thing 1 or Thing 2!!!

[Lindaloo]

How do you know it's a HER?? It may be a him or an it!! Or a Thing 1 or Thing 2!!!

[Guest]

The wave the NHC is refering to is located near 11N/50W and movement is slow to the west. If you look at that IR4 Loop, and zoom in on that location, you will notice there is a slight cyclonic rotation there. But as TWW and PTPatrik mention, you can also see the shear clearly, mostly due to a weak TUTT set up from the coast of South America from 10N/75W northeastward to 21N/48W. This will hold the wave in check for the time being.
It is an impressive wave for mid June.

[Guest]

Oh yeah, we already had Thing 1 in the Gulf of Mexico!!!

[Rainband]

Oh yeah, we already had Thing 1 in the Gulf of Mexico!!!

[Lindaloo]

Oh yeah, we already had Thing 1 in the Gulf of Mexico!!!

[HURAKAN]

Well, I would say we had thing 1 during the last days of May and thing 2 now in the Gulf Mexico. Thing 3 may come during the last days of June or first days of July.

[Stephanie]

I love it! "Thing 1"!

[msbee]

is it
The "Thing"
or
The "Blob"???
anyone here old enough to remember that movie?
"An alien lifeform consumes everything in its path as it grows and grows. "
sounds sort of like a hurricane!

[MWatkins]

A few things about this WV loop...

1. Notice the upper low center near 20N 55W or so. It's crawling along the ENE and if the GFS is correct...it will continue to do so and move out of the way during the next few days as fiarly well-defined cyclonic flow bubbles up and moves more or less to the west in tandem with the wave:

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/avn ... =Animation

2. This isn't one of those systems that is just racing along the estimated forward motion was 11 knots at 18Z. It might be more like 12...but it's not going to outrun the building high. In fact the upper high may follow this system all the way to the Caribbean.

3. The dry air out in front is not all that uncommon. The wave is still well connected to the ITZC to the south and is pulling up quite a bit of ITCZ moisture. As the upper trough kicks out and is replaced...dry air intrusion seems to the the least of the worries this system is going to have. It's not absorbing it now and the overall envelope around the system is fairly good. This is a wait and see though.

4. Remember that water vapor imagery will tell you what is going on in the upper levels but does not implicitly indicate what is going on at the surface. If you see cyclonic flow in the WV loop you're probably looking at an upper low. IR2 works a lot better at night...and visible is always best during the day...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Still...it's hard to believe that significant development will occur. But thunderstorm activity is starting to pulse up right around the spot that TPC estimates the mid-center to be...so this will be interesting to watch.

MW

[KatDaddy]

..in June. Especially a TW that is this expansive with somewhat organization. I really wonder how this season will evolve. Interesting days ahead to say the least.

[Josephine96]

LOL about the thing lol..

It will be a "her".. if Alex comes soon enough lol

[Lindaloo]

is it
The "Thing"
or
The "Blob"???
anyone here old enough to remember that movie?
"An alien lifeform consumes everything in its path as it grows and grows. "
sounds sort of like a hurricane!

I watched the old version of that movie on American Movie Classics. There is also a remake of it too.

[Opal storm]

This wave is getting ready to move into a huge mess of shear,it might take it to the grave and never come back.We'll see though...