94L INVEST at 49 W 10 N -- CONVECTION......

[dixiebreeze]

looking good this morning. NRL has it at 1012 MB just SE of the Windwards:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... YLE=tables

Looks like a live one to watch for the next week or so. Enjoy!

[dixiebreeze]

Here he is:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

[dixiebreeze]

Anyone know when Scott's tracking maps will be posted?

[Josephine96]

Dixie.. you really have faith this is going to be Alex, huh? lol

[mf_dolphin]

Let's not calling storms by name until they at least should some signs of really being named. Thanks

[Derecho]

Sorry.

QS shows there's no surface circulation at all.

And the westerly shear is already extremely obvious.

Regarding Scott's tracking maps, while there was an NHC model run at 06Z, there was no 12Z run, and there isn't anything to track of this on the global models, so there really aren't any tracks to map.

[Opal storm]

Calling this Alex already?...GEEZ...

This might have a better chance in the Caribbean,right now there's no chance.

[dixiebreeze]

Let's not calling storms by name until they at least should some signs of really being named. Thanks

You're absolutely right, Dolphin. I got a bit carried away. Sorry.

[chadtm80]

We all get carried away this time of year.. No worries at all dixie You are a pleasure to have here!

[Anonymous]

Sorry.

QS shows there's no surface circulation at all.

And the westerly shear is already extremely obvious.

Regarding Scott's tracking maps, while there was an NHC model run at 06Z, there was no 12Z run, and there isn't anything to track of this on the global models, so there really aren't any tracks to map.

Agreed...the globals are picking it up at 950H albeit barely.

[HURAKAN]

1011 mb now.

[HURAKAN]

Yesterday Accuweather said, "tomorrow we will see how the shear rip apart this wave", and today we see that the convection around the system has increased! I don't know if the wave has a deal with the shear or something but it has been threated very well by the shear. Let see what happens.

[Hurricanehink]

I'm not particularly impressed. Hostile upper environment, and very disorganized now. Maybe in a few days, but let's not get too crazy over this one.

[HURAKAN]

http://www.weather.com/maps/news/juneno ... large.html

UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALL THE WAY TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ...

[Anonymous]

Shear is increasing the convection by divergent flow...so it's no surprise the convection hasn't died down. A squally wave for the Windward Islands yes, but no threat to become a classified tropical system anytime soon (and probably not in the long range either).

[HURAKAN]

FROM THE NHC TWO:
THIS FAVORABLE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD WITH THE WAVE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALLOWING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD OVER THE WINDWARD/LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT INTO WED.

What it means exactly?
"FAVORABLE PATTERN EXPECTED TO MOVE WITH THE WAVE WESTWARD"

[GalvestonDuck]

Well, here's the first part (and it's from the Discussion, not the Outlook -- or at least, that's where I found it):

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 56W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT.
THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO BE WELL DEFINED IN SATELLITE WITH AN
IMPRESSIVE AREA OF NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ALONG AND
TO THE EAST OF THE AXIS WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 9N57W
16N49W. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW NEAR THE WAVE REMAINS DIFFLUENT
WITH A WEAK TROUGH TO THE WEST AND WELL DEFINED RIDGING TO THE
EAST. THIS FAVORABLE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD WITH THE WAVE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALLOWING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD OVER THE WINDWARD/LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT INTO WED.

I'm guessing the trough to the west and the ridge to the east is the pattern to which they are referring.

[Wnghs2007]

FROM THE NHC TWO:
THIS FAVORABLE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD WITH THE WAVE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALLOWING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD OVER THE WINDWARD/LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT INTO WED.

What it means exactly?
"FAVORABLE PATTERN EXPECTED TO MOVE WITH THE WAVE WESTWARD"

What they mean is the favorable pattern to produce showers and thunderstorms around the wave are going to follow it. Tropicaly speaking this wave is in to hostile of an enviroment to have any chance until it atleast gets into the western Carribean!

[cycloneye]

Not favorable for tropical development but the upper pattern is favorable for a divergent flow that keeps aiding in the formation of showers and thunderstorms but about tropical development not likely so Sandy go get too excited about development because it wont happen.

[HURAKAN]

Not favorable for tropical development but the upper pattern is favorable for a divergent flow that keeps aiding in the formation of showers and thunderstorms but about tropical development not likely so Sandy go get too excited about development because it wont happen.

For your information look what I wrote just 2 minutes ago answering another post:
If anything is going to develop it will not be where the wave is located, if it survives the wall of shear then the Central Caribbean will be an "ideal" place for the wave to further develop.