About that wave/disturbance in the central Atlantic

[Matthew5]

The shear tendency map is showing weaking shear around system of about 10 knots over the past 24 hours.

Latest
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

3 hours ago
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... ht-1.html3 hours ago

6 hours ago
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... sht-2.html

Shear around this system is 15 to 20 knots unfavorable.

The Quickscats show it sharping up with time maybe a surface low???
With some winds of 25 knots on the northeast quad.

http://manati.wwb.noaa.gov/dataimages21 ... MBas26.png

We will have to see if development can have a chances if this shear weakens enough. But as of right now I give it 20 percent chance for development over the next 36 hours???

The global models keep it as a open wave as it moves through the Caribbean.

[rainstorm]

its a little early still. nice for early in the season though