Bahamian Storm?

[HURAKAN]

Look closely what happens in the Bahamas in a few days according to this model and then make your own conclusions. Interesting!

[bahamaswx]

We could use the rain here.

Then again, w/ no support... a model, is a model, is a model.

[ColdFront77]

Sure, a model is a model, is a model... but these models give guidance which is important.

[Dean4Storms]

Seeing signs of this low this AM with some albeit limited convection trying to grow around what appears to be a low forming. Something to keep an eye on anyway.

[Vortex]

I noticed the same even before I glanced at the mrf....We could certainly use the rain...

[Matthew5]

This would be above 30 north. The Mrf takes it south, then develops it. So it would not be any where near that area but to the north. The 00z Mrf looked to be the only model supporting tropical cyclone development or what ever low pressure. The 06z came in saying just showers. Sorry but no development around this area for at least a month.

[Derek Ortt]

That is at 500mb. An surface low would likely not be underneath thhat. That model merely depicts some mid-level feature

[Steve H.]

However, looking at this morning satellite loop there is an area of convection firing at the base of the trough, which can bring development when high rebuilds. Unlikely, but not out of the realm of possibilities. That said, it is early for the Atlantic basin. I was thinking Alex in June, but I think the only shot will come from the wave near the lesser antilles. SHear should begin to relax during the next two days as the low in the north central atlantic is pushed eastward by the front crossing the maritimes. If this doesn't go we may have a longer wait for Alex.

[boca]

the wave still looks impressive down by the Leeward Islands.

[ColdFront77]

^ ^ ^  A track further to the west of the Bahamas in the latest loop.  ^ ^ ^

[HURRICANELONNY]

MRF=More Ridiculous Forecasting

[HURAKAN]

MRF=More Ridiculous Forecasting

LOL.

[The Cape Cod Storm]

I really think that it'll hold together for us... Or I hope, because, this is a huge hype here!!! A storm this early...

[paulvogel]

ok folks my first hcane post
once again i am on a cruise during the season
July 11 -18 Baltimore to florida and bahamas R/T
down the east coast to key west, and back up.

[The Cape Cod Storm]

Is that a story?????Or a statement....???Or.....

[MWatkins]

The model display in the first post is at 500MB...or the mid levels. The model is picking up on an upper low developing and retrograding toward the DR/Cuba then over toward the Florida penisula during the 5 to 10 day period.

Although a surface trough will develop and nudge the Bermuda high to the east over the next 5 days or so...relative surface pressures near florida and the Bahamas will remain quite high. In the extended...the Atlantic ridge will rebuild back to the west.

There is not a single model even hinting at anything developing at the surface from these features...or elsewhere in the basin...during the next 8 days or so.

Be paitent. The storms will come.

MW

[HURAKAN]

The model display in the first post is at 500MB...or the mid levels. The model is picking up on an upper low developing and retrograding toward the DR/Cuba then over toward the Florida penisula during the 5 to 10 day period.

Although a surface trough will develop and nudge the Bermuda high to the east over the next 5 days or so...relative surface pressures near florida and the Bahamas will remain quite high. In the extended...the Atlantic ridge will rebuild back to the west.

There is not a single model even hinting at anything developing at the surface from these features...or elsewhere in the basin...during the next 8 days or so.

Be paitent. The storms will come.

MW

When I posted the information above it was last night and the model was showing a low stationary over the Bahamas and deepening at the same time. Now the model has shifted greatly showing a low going over Cuba and then over Florida, these things can happen. But well, it will be a great pleasure to have a low pressure around us here in South Florida, rain is needed badly.

[MWatkins]

When I posted the information above it was last night and the model was showing a low stationary over the Bahamas and deepening at the same time. Now the model has shifted greatly showing a low going over Cuba and then over Florida, these things can happen. But well, it will be a great pleasure to have a low pressure around us here in South Florida, rain is needed badly.

Goodness knows that's right. The seabreeze has been setting up over the everglades and we're getting nothing here on the east coast. It better starting raining soon or we will start hearing about firework bans.

MW

[jabber]

The model display in the first post is at 500MB...or the mid levels. The model is picking up on an upper low developing and retrograding toward the DR/Cuba then over toward the Florida penisula during the 5 to 10 day period.

Although a surface trough will develop and nudge the Bermuda high to the east over the next 5 days or so...relative surface pressures near florida and the Bahamas will remain quite high. In the extended...the Atlantic ridge will rebuild back to the west.

There is not a single model even hinting at anything developing at the surface from these features...or elsewhere in the basin...during the next 8 days or so.

Be paitent. The storms will come.

MW

Hello Mike.... Nice to see you again this season.

[HURAKAN]

I think we will hearing more about "REGULATIONS", than fireworks.