El nino?

[newt3]

Local Met hinted that a possible El nino pattern may be starting early. Any thoughts? He pointed out the constant shear in the East carribean as to this.

[MWatkins]

Local Met hinted that a possible El nino pattern may be starting early. Any thoughts? He pointed out the constant shear in the East carribean as to this.

Shear in the eastern caribbean in the middle of June is not uncommon...in fact it's expected. If we were in the middle of September and the basin wide pattern looks like to does now...then I would agree.

But the eastern Caribbean almost always has shear. Even during the peak of the season the TUTT often sets up there and every system has to deal with it...remember even formidible Georges had to deal with shear when it reached the eastern Caribbean.

Looking at a mid-June pattern in the eastern Caribbean and proclaiming Nino is setting in early is HOGWASH...it is similar to looking up at the back of a thunserstorm in the midwest...seeing the sun shining...and saying "no chance for a tornado today...it's not raining".

Even the most nino optimistic models are holding off until after the peak of the season to develop a warm event. Look at SST anoms now...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/pac_anom.gif

Your local met needs to either:

1. Lay off the sauce.
2. Do some research.

Thanks for the post though...I know it's not you, it's your local met.

MW

[newt3]

Thought It was a little early for all that assumption. Thanks, I'm clear on this now

[Guest]

No El Nino...Not yet anyway & if & when it does get goin it will be case of too little too late,as far as significantly affecting this years season.As to the shear in the Caribbean that is occurring at the present time,this is a common occurence in June.June is not a popular month as far as tropical cyclones go in the ATL basin,I believe the ATL averages 1 storm every 2 years.That said,last year we had a TD & Bill which developed late in the month so one would think that this June would be a quiet one & such is the case.

I was in the middle of typing my reply when MWAtkins answered the ? quite thoroughly.

[Anonymous]

We are far from an El Nino in the equatorial Pacific, let alone an El Nino PATTERN setting up.

[wxman57]

If anything, the Pacific continues to cool through June. The cold tongue now extends from South America all the way to 150w. And I'm seeing cooling now west of the date line. IF it's leaning one way or the other, it's more toward La Nina.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/OTI ... nomaly.gif

[Brent]

The Central and Eastern Caribbean is known as the "zone of death". I believe Claudette last year was the first named storm to develop down there(maybe ever), but certainly in a long time. Climatology was against it. Don't get discouraged by that. It's only June, and the most favorable areas are the GOM and Western Caribbean(and maybe the Western Atlantic around the Bahamas).

As for El Nino... maybe really late in the season, but it shouldn't have much impact. It might cause reduced activity in November, but the season is pretty much shut down by then anyway.

[Stormsfury]

As for El Nino... maybe really late in the season, but it shouldn't have much impact. It might cause reduced activity in November, but the season is pretty much shut down by then anyway.

Agreed ...

It would take a series of exceptionally strong Kelvin Waves to induce an El Niño that would actually affect the season.

[elw]

This is really not the time of year to be looking for significant changes in the ENSO. Normally major changes in SSTA prior to the onset of an El Nino are seen during the Spring.