Always good to hear from those close to the source

[hurricanetrack]

This is from the folks at BOM in Australia. They, perhaps more than anyone else, have a keen interest in El Ninos and La Ninas. Check out this from their weekly report:

The current El Niño-Southern Oscillation status remains neutral, and this situation is likely to persist for the rest of 2004. Although the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has once again dropped below zero, its persistent fluctuating behaviour is consistent with a neutral pattern. There remains nothing in the current observations to suggest the emergence of an appropriate trigger for an El Niño event. Based on historical data, the chance of an El Niño event occurring this late in the year can almost be ruled out, given that there has been only one clearly defined instance of an event developing in the second half of the year.

[Brent]

Thanks for the info. Just more evidence that an El Nino is highly unlikely this season.

[hurricanetrack]

Yeah, I was kind of worried when the SOI went so far negative but we all know that it is wise to do a little research and try to find a reason behind certain events. I figured that an El Nino was not likely- I mean the SSTs in the Pacific are in check- while the Atlantic is almost a hot bath in some areas.

During these boring times of inactivity, it's good to find useful information out there.