Another reminder that June storms aren't too common...

[senorpepr]

Based on 30-year climatology (from 1974-2003), it's not too common to have a tropical storm by this time of year. As a matter of fact, the average day for the first named tropical storm is July 8. We shall see...

Code: Select all

ATLANTIC
JAN 01 - JUN 26 AVERAGES

     --30 YRS--
     ##  AVG/YR  2004
TS   12   0.40    00   
HR   03   0.10    00
MHR  00   0.00    00

TS is based on storms of GTE 35KT
HR is based on storms of GTE 65KT
MHR is based on storms of GTE 100KT

[SupertyphoonTip]

Going back to 1871 shows an overall 50.3% chance of a June tropical cyclone in the Atlantic Ocean, meaning approximately one every other year. Since we had Bill last year, a quiet June this year should not be a surprise to anyone. Also, this doesn't mean that the whole season will be below-average since there have been many active years with a slow start and also many inactive ones with a good start (such as 1997).

[Derecho]

Going back to 1871 shows an overall 50.3% chance of a June tropical cyclone in the Atlantic Ocean, meaning approximately one every other year. Since we had Bill last year, a quiet June this year should not be a surprise to anyone. Also, this doesn't mean that the whole season will be below-average since there have been many active years with a slow start and also many inactive ones with a good start (such as 1997).

Actually I believe there's a very slight NEGATIVE statistical correlation between June activity and seasonal activity as a whole; as years where a big Nino wipes out Aug/September tend to have a flurry of crappy tropical storms in June....

[Hurricanehink]

Actually I believe there's a very slight NEGATIVE statistical correlation between June activity and seasonal activity as a whole; as years where a big Nino wipes out Aug/September tend to have a flurry of crappy tropical storms in June....

That's exactly right. Look at 97, 94, 93, 91, 86, the list goes on. Besides, June storms are normally boring. I would rather save Alex for a nice Cape Verde hurricane... though a little early action is normally good in my books

[Anonymous]

Going back to 1871 shows an overall 50.3% chance of a June tropical cyclone in the Atlantic Ocean, meaning approximately one every other year. Since we had Bill last year, a quiet June this year should not be a surprise to anyone. Also, this doesn't mean that the whole season will be below-average since there have been many active years with a slow start and also many inactive ones with a good start (such as 1997).

Actually I believe there's a very slight NEGATIVE statistical correlation between June activity and seasonal activity as a whole; as years where a big Nino wipes out Aug/September tend to have a flurry of crappy tropical storms in June....

Yeah I think it's about -.35....nothing significant as you mentioned.