Nearing All-Time WPAC June Record

[HURAKAN]

2004 WESTERN PACIFIC TYPHOON SEASON MAKING HISTORY

WPAC JUNE RECORD
TS: 5
TY: 4
MTY: 1
STY: 1

ALMOST NEW RECORD
TS: 5
TY: 5 (IF TINGTING BECOMES TYPHOON, 100% LIKELY)
MTY: 1 (IF MINDULLE BECOMES A MTY, 100% LIKELY)
STY: 1

COMMENTS ARE ALWAYS WELCOME.

[bahamaswx]

Nothing is ever "100% Likely"

[NJCane]

Has there been anyone who has looked to see any link between WPAC early in the year (June) and Atlantic activity. I ask this only because we are in a dull period and I am looking for some good info or links, if any between the WPAC and Atlantic (perhaps MJO related)

[chadtm80]

http://agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/cgi-bin/dt/se ... &basin=wnp

[HURAKAN]

2004-6-26

Typhoon TINGTING was born in north of Truk Islands. It is moving westward together with Typhoon MINDULLE, and their movement should be paid attention. By the way, this is the fifth typhoon in June, and this number, five generations, is the maximum record of monthly generation, exceeding the previous record of four generations in June (3 times) since 1951.

[Brent]

*Hoping the Atlantic sets some records this year*

[Typhoon_Willie]

That could very well happen there Brent!

[SupertyphoonTip]

Nothing is 100% likely until it's happened

But now that Tingting is a typhoon, we have a record number of typhoons this June in the WPAC.

Has there been anyone who has looked to see any link between WPAC early in the year (June) and Atlantic activity. I ask this only because we are in a dull period and I am looking for some good info or links, if any between the WPAC and Atlantic (perhaps MJO related)

The most active WPAC Junes were 1953, 1958 (El Nino), 1974, 1990, and 1997 (El Nino). Of these, all except 1974 and 1997 were above-normal in the Atlantic with 6-8 hurricanes and 3-6 majors. There looks to be a positive correlation in all cases except those during which ENSO played a role. Basically, in neutral-ENSO years (such as this one) an active WPAC June means an active Atlantic season. Nothing record-breaking, but above-average nonetheless.

[HURAKAN]

6/27/04 11PM EDT: JUST 5 KNOTS FROM BEING A MAJOR TYPHOON

[SupertyphoonTip]

Mindulle is now forecasted to become a super-typhoon this afternoon. This would break the super-typhoon record of the month. Tingting also has a chance at minimal super-typhoon strength, but this may occur on the first day of July. What an incredible June for the WPAC!

[HURAKAN]

2004 WESTERN PACIFIC TYPHOON SEASON MAKING HISTORY

WPAC JUNE RECORD
TS: 5
TY: 4
MTY: 1
STY: 1

ALMOST NEW RECORD
TS: 5
TY: 5
MTY: 3 (IF TINGTING BECOMES A MTY)
STY: 2 (IF MINDULLE BECOMES A STY)

[SupertyphoonTip]

ALMOST NEW RECORD
TS: 5
TY: 5
MTY: 2 (IF TINGTING BECOMES A MTY)
STY: 2 (IF MINDULLE BECOMES A STY)

Actually, if Tingting becomes a major typhoon we would have had 3 of them, not 2, when you include Dianmu and Mindulle.

[Aslkahuna]

levels this June in WPAC more typical of August or September (particularly
with regards to Supers), but the storm tracks are more typical of those months as well since June storms usually don't get so far north. Shows that the U/A pattern over Asia is garbaged up like the North American pattern with its absolutely ridiculous Omega Block over AK and western Canada-which is screwing up the monsoon onset down here. Incidentally, the normal number of Supers per year in WPAC is 4-5 and the record is 11.

Steve

[Hurricanehink]

Wow, the average number of Supers is 4?!?! We already have that, and the season has barely begun!

[SupertyphoonTip]

Yep, also 11 tropical storms with still three-fourths, including the most active part, of the season left. If this pattern continues, we may very well see a record-breaking year.

[Aslkahuna]

in WPAC based upon JT's records was 1964 with 40 named storms and 26 typhoons.

Steve

[bahamaswx]

GLOBAL WARMING!!!!1


....just kidding