98E looks like a TD but window to develop is small

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jun 30, 2004 6:38 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

The loop indicates a decent circulation and convection increasing near the surface low so finnally the EPAC will surely have the first TD since mid may.Will it form into tropical storm Blas is the question because dry air is to it's west so it well may not last too long if it forms into a TD.

Rainband · #2 Postby **Rainband** » Wed Jun 30, 2004 7:00 pm

Nice spin

Thanks Luis :wink:

#3 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jun 30, 2004 7:04 pm

Rainband wrote:Nice spin Thanks Luis

At least it is something to talk about as the Atlantic continues to be zzzzzzzzzzzz.

Rainband · #4 Postby **Rainband** » Wed Jun 30, 2004 7:08 pm

Not for long I fear :eek:

#5 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jun 30, 2004 7:09 pm

Rainband wrote::lol: Not for long I fear

I agree not for long the atlantic will remain zzzzzzzzzz.

#6 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Jun 30, 2004 7:14 pm

Nice spin but at this moment the convection is not helping the system; if it increases then the story will be different.

#7 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jun 30, 2004 7:17 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Nice spin but at this moment the convection is not helping the system; if it increases then the story will be different.

It has a window that will be closing because dry air is to it's west so if it wants to develop it has to be later tonight or tommorow morning.

Anonymous · #8 Postby **Anonymous** » Wed Jun 30, 2004 7:32 pm

Still not very organized. Moderate SW shear over the system (very evident in WV imagery) is preventing anticyclonic flow aloft...as a consequence, the system isn't being well ventilated. There remains a small window of opportunity for it to become a TD in the next 24HR or so...but anything more seems unlikely at this point given the increasing shear and arrested outflow.

#9 Postby **wx247** » Thu Jul 01, 2004 8:48 am

Looks worse this morning. Chances of development appear very small although the NHC still is riding it like a horse.

Anonymous · #10 Postby **Anonymous** » Thu Jul 01, 2004 9:34 am

Actually looking a little better...at least now there's evidence of an outflow pattern. Has a shot a becoming a TD later today, but time isn't on its side to become anything stronger.

#11 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 01, 2004 11:21 am

Yes last night it didn't had the outflow but now it has it but again the window is small for it.

FWBHurricane · #12 Postby **FWBHurricane** » Thu Jul 01, 2004 11:26 am

It looks awsome. It has good outflow like Supercane said. I think the storm wont start developing into something until late tonight maybe into tomorrow. It might turn into something later today since alot of convection just blew up around the center of the storm.

#13 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 01, 2004 11:33 am

And now the TPC says it will begin advisories later today. :darrow:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1557.shtml?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/danger_pac_15.gif

#14 Postby **wx247** » Thu Jul 01, 2004 1:10 pm

Supercane wrote:Actually looking a little better...at least now there's evidence of an outflow pattern. Has a shot a becoming a TD later today, but time isn't on its side to become anything stronger.

The outflow was better, but the convection was pitiful. It is looking better now.

#15 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 01, 2004 1:27 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

T numbers are climbing so there is a good chance to see at least TD2-E.

SupertyphoonTip · #16 Postby **SupertyphoonTip** » Thu Jul 01, 2004 1:38 pm

I think that even if it will be upgraded to a depression, it won't last more than a couple days since it will steadily approach colder water. The 26C isotherm is currently located around 15.5N to 16N in the area, while the center is near 14N. They mention this in the outlook as well.

#17 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 01, 2004 1:47 pm

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/04070118

The models at 18:00 UTC are in agreement that it may get to TD status but it wont be TS Blas.

98E looks like a TD but window to develop is small

98E looks like a TD but window to develop is small

Re: 98E looks like a TD

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