donsutherland1 wrote:Storm2K Fun Forecasting Contest Ends With Photo Finish
Battle Goes Down to the Wire
The Storm2K Fun Forecasting Contest concluded after an intense three-way battle in the General Objective category. That fight did not end until the clock literally struck midnight to usher in June 30. Ultimately, a consistently solid performance in both the temperature and dewpoint estimates carried the day for the winner.
In the General Objective forecast, the task of forecasting maximum and minimum dewpoint readings apparently confounded a number of the competitors and overwhelmed a pair of sensational temperature forecasts. June 29, in particular, proved decisive due to a surprise plunge in dewpoint readings that was foreseen neither by the competitors nor the computer guidance at the time the contest opened.
Final Standings: General Objective:
Name........................Avg. Error
Don.......................... 2.6°
ELW..........................2.7°
Jshetley....................2.8°
Stephanie.................3.8°
FWB Hurricane..........5.3°
Aquawind..................6.7°
Both ELW and Stephanie had spectacular performances when it came to forecasting maximum and minimum temperatures. Aided by four perfect temperature forecasts, ELW’s average error in forecasting maximum and minimum readings came to a microscopic 1.0°. Stephanie’s average error amounted to an almost as miniscule 1.7°.
For those who are interested, the average temperature and dewpoint errors for the contestants were as follows:
Don: 2.3°/2.8°
ELW: 1.0°/4.3°
Jshetley: 2.2°/3.5°
Stephanie: 1.7°/6.0°
FWB Hurricane: 4.0°/6.7°
Aquawind: 5.5°/7.8°
Interestingly enough, although the contest permitted forecasters to choose from among Baltimore, Boston, Hartford, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC, none those who entered the contest chose to forecast for Hartford and Newark (except for the bonus objective where the high temperatures of those cities were required to compute an average temperature for the six cities).
Final data for Baltimore, Boston, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC for June 27-29 follows:
Baltimore:
June 27: High: 81°; Low: 52°; High DP: 56°; Low DP: 50°
June 28: High: 81°; Low: 60°; High DP: 63°; Low DP: 54°
June 29: High: 80°; Low: 59°; High DP: 62°; Low DP: 48°
Boston:
June 27: High: 78°; Low: 58°; High DP: 48°; Low DP: 40°
June 28: High: 78°; Low: 63°; High DP: 51°; Low DP: 45°
June 29: High: 68°; Low: 59°; High DP: 57°; Low DP: 51°
Philadelphia:
June 27: High: 81°; Low: 57°; High DP: 50°; Low DP: 43°
June 28: High: 83°; Low: 63°; High DP: 62°; Low DP: 49°
June 29: High: 82°; Low: 65°; High DP: 62°; Low DP: 49°
Washington, DC:
June 27: High: 81°; Low: 61°; High DP: 58°; Low DP: 49°
June 28: High: 81°; Low: 67°; High DP: 63°; Low DP: 53°
June 29: High: 81°; Low: 64°; High DP: 63°; Low DP: 51°
Final Standings: Bonus Objective:
Name.........Forecast......Error
Don............84°.............0.2°
Aquawind...83°.............1.2°
Elw.............82°.............2.2°
FWB Hur.....75°.............9.2°
Four forecasters entered the bonus objective where the task involved forecasting the average high temperature for Baltimore, Boston, Hartford, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC for June 30.
Temperatures continued to rise after 4 pm and what had been a razor tight contest was blown open, courtesy of the mercury reaching 86° in Newark and 84° in Boston. Both figures were ahead of the computer guidance for the day.
High Temperatures:
Baltimore: 84°
Boston: 84°
Hartford: 82°
Newark: 86°
Philadelphia: 84°
Washington, DC: 85°
Average High Temperature: 84.2°
Sources of data:
Temperatures: National Weather Service F6 Sheets
Dewpoints: National Weather Service 48-Hour Observations and Intellicast’s Archived Observations.
For those who are interested in entering such contests in the future, one should never be afraid of being embarrassed. That has never been the idea of these contests. Such contests are wholly about having fun, learning, and improving.
Perhaps, to reach back into the dusty archives that predate recorded weather data, classical Roman philosopher Publilius Syrus put it best in his “Maxim 786” when he declared, “No one knows what he can do till he tries.” The same certainly applies to forecasting contests.
Finally, a special thank you goes to USAwx1 for organizing the contest. Although circumstances made it impossible for him to preside over its finish, it should be noted that this contest would not have been possible without his time and effort. Many thanks also go to those who participated and the Storm2K moderators/administrators who were instrumental in hosting the contest.
Hope to see more participate this time around.. Link below to new contest
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=32477