African Wave 1700utc

#1 Postby **Vortex** » Mon Jul 05, 2004 12:29 pm

wow, the wave off Africa is very impressive....

Lindaloo · #2 Postby **Lindaloo** » Mon Jul 05, 2004 12:30 pm

Can you link us please?

YouTube · #3 Postby **hurricanetrack** » Mon Jul 05, 2004 12:30 pm

We can now start watching the infamous global models for clues to its future. While the models are not perfect, we can look for favorable conditions and other patterns that might help predict what will happen with this first batter up.

Thunder44 · #4 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Jul 05, 2004 12:42 pm

Go to this site and you find more up to date satellite pics http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

#5 Postby **MWatkins** » Mon Jul 05, 2004 12:46 pm

A QuikScat pass from overnight shows a fiarly distinct swirl but loosly put together...and not closed...

http://manati.wwb.noaa.gov/dataimages21 ... MBas32.png

However...satellite animation shows a fairly well-defined circulation right at 10N 18W.

Actually...the 26 degree isotherm extends up to around 13N or so...but waters are borderline for development at 10N until 50W.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/atl_anal.gif

Wind shear analysis from CIMMS suggests 15/20 knots of upper shear over the system...again very marginal.

Actually...the 06Z GFS shows a small area of low 250/850MB shear will ride along with the system over the next several days...

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/avn ... =Animation

Something to watch...I suppose. If a burst of deep convection goes up over that center (and there is none right now) then things will get more interesting. That's the thing to watch for next.

MW

#6 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Jul 05, 2004 1:01 pm

MWatkins wrote:A QuikScat pass from overnight shows a fiarly distinct swirl but loosly put together...and not closed...

http://manati.wwb.noaa.gov/dataimages21 ... MBas32.png

However...satellite animation shows a fairly well-defined circulation right at 10N 18W.

MW

Watch those QuickSCAT image times. That one above is from 07Z, so it's 12 hours old.

chadtm80 · #7 Postby **chadtm80** » Mon Jul 05, 2004 1:03 pm

Yep. Tis why he said from over night ;-)

#8 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Jul 05, 2004 1:37 pm

chadtm80 wrote:Yep. Tis why he said from over night

Just my standard caveat about QS winds - the time ATOP the QS pass is not the image time. Look to the bottom of the QS image for a small number in purple - that's the time of the image. Sometimes the images can be 24 hours old or more.

chadtm80 · #9 Postby **chadtm80** » Mon Jul 05, 2004 1:41 pm

Ya, I do it ALL the time.. lol..

#10 Postby **MWatkins** » Mon Jul 05, 2004 2:15 pm

wxman57 wrote:Just my standard caveat about QS winds - the time ATOP the QS pass is not the image time. Look to the bottom of the QS image for a small number in purple - that's the time of the image. Sometimes the images can be 24 hours old or more.

Since this wave moved off yesterday evening...and the rain contamination in the image is precisely where the thunderstorms where at that time...and since I've been reading QScat images since they started making them available on the web years ago...and because the site explains how to read the image time right there at the bottom of the image...I feel pretty good about the image time of overnight as accurate.

Thanks, WXMAN57.

MW

ColdFront77 · #11 Postby **ColdFront77** » Mon Jul 05, 2004 2:51 pm

For the record, 10°N 18°W is about 3,260 miles WNW of San Juan, Puerto Rico and about 4,200 miles WNW of Miami, Florida.

550 miles SE of the Cape Verde Islands, (NWS/TPC National Hurricane Center indicates this location in their 11:30 AM EDT
Tropical Weather Outlook) from 10°N 18°W is amid the islands that make up the Cape Verde's.

African Wave 1700utc

African Wave 1700utc

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