For what it's worth- the 18Z GFS shows an improving environment at 200MB as this system moves west. I think it also shows the TUTT lifting out and in fact, well into the run, it seems that conditions across most of the Basin are quite favorable at 200MB. I could be wrong, but the 1236 line retreats rather far to the north as the run progresses.
We shall see.
200MB seems ok to my untrained eyes
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hurricanetrack
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hurricanetrack
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200MB
I thought so. That 30 knot thin blue line was not anywhere near our system and the whole "westerlies" seem to retreat north towards the end of the month.
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