Area of interest south of Bermuda....bears watching

[Hyperstorm]

After weeks of quietness in the Atlantic, a race of which system could develop into our first named system of the year....ALEX, is likely underway.

We have an interesting system just south of Bermuda that I have been monitoring for days since it was tied to a front off the SE coast of the US. It has since moved SE into relatively favorable waters and winds. I know for sure it still has some N-NE shear, but it definitely is not as strong as when it was off the coast or too strong to inhibit it to continue to become better organized. It has been showing signs of persisting with convection exploding and expanding during the daytime and weakening (as usual in a development phase) during the night. Today is no exception and we're seeing heavy showers and thunderstorms over what looks to be a mid-level circulation.

I think this system has actually more chances to develop into a TD/TS sooner than our other system that is farther away off Africa. Plus, this one is a LOT closer to American landmasses, so it bears closer monitoring. I bet the NHC is keeping an eye on it too and should provide us with details soon in one of their outlooks. I haven't had time to study model data and/or steering patterns/upper winds, etc., so I don't know what will the future bring to this system, but I believe it bears closer monitoring than our Atlantic disturbance.

Any comments or opinions? I'd like to know if any of the members has any information about this system and/or model data.

[cycloneye]

I talked briefly about that area in my update this afternoon and yes sometimes something can spin out of that so let's watch and see what happens with it.

[Hyperstorm]

The system has weakened quite a bit this morning since yesterday which is kind of unusual, since this is normally the time when you expect to see convection refiring after the long night's lull. I'm not as optimistic as yesterday morning as the system will be quickly moving over increasingly cooler waters after 24 hours. Although you can't ever say never in the tropics, I can say that it was probably a false alarm to keep us awake.

On the other hand, the wave that exited the coast of Africa yesterday is catching my eye this morning. Even though the system came off rather weak convection-wise, it appears to be regaining convection this morning near 10N and 18W. It appears the GFS may be on to something as moisture levels are better with this wave. Development chances are still not as high due mainly to climatology.

On a side note, I especially like the one wave that is about to exit the coast shortly, probably tomorrow. Now, that one has one MONSTER of a circulation (intensity-wise) with convection sporadically exploding over land. Those waves are the ones that most likely will have a chance of developing once moving offshore if they find the right conditions. I call those systems a pumping fire machine waiting for the gasoline to start-up. Just wait until it gets offshore as I think that one will most likely be the ultimate player of all the disturbances we're seeing out there.

[cycloneye]

Agree about the south of Bermuda system not as organized as yesterday.About that wave emerging Africa here in Puerto Rico the San Juan NWS discussion says about it and the model scenario for it by early next week to be near our vicinity http://storm2k.nhcwx.com/cgi-bin/hw3.cg ... n&state=PR

.Oh boy can we say thanks to the mjo for the more activity in the atlantic?