Latest tropiocal Atlantic discussion...

[Typhoon_Willie]

I copied part of it and will past that part here...

AXNT20 KNHC 062333
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE 06 JUL 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ALONG THE LONGITUDE OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS ALONG 24W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 15 KT. BOTH THE DAKAR
AND CAPE VERDE SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE WAVE HAS A HIGHLY
TILTED STRUCTURE...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL SIGNATURE OUT-RACING THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL AXIS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF LONGITUDE. THE
SURFACE REFLECTION PASSED SAL IN THE CAPE VERDES EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND IT APPEARS THE MAIN AXIS IS NOW PASSING WEST OF
THE ISLANDS. CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE RAGGED AND NOT AS
INTENSE AS YESTERDAY...WHICH MAY BE PARTLY DUE TO AN INFLUX OF
DRIER SAHARAN AIR JUST NORTH OF THE WAVE. WHAT IS LEFT OF THE
TSTM CLUSTERS APPEARS TO BE MORE OR LESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ITCZ AT THIS TIME.

[MWatkins]

Yep...it looked like thunderstorm activity was transitioning from the wave to the ITCZ this morning and that has continued tonight. The Mid-center has probably dissipated.

Long link coming...nah wait...you'll have to click on the SSM/I 85ghz link here...

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

No discernable mid-center. And nothing in the 37h imagery either.

And from QSCAT today...and yes...it is today's pass around 3PM EDT...the circulation has gone from 3/4 to only 1/2 closed...closer to an open wave than anything else....

http://manati.wwb.noaa.gov/storm_at_ima ... _at_0.html

One thing to note...the vorticity center is further south than yesterday and may have slipped south into the deeper convection from eariler.

However...this wave is probably cooked. The 18Z GFS is still optimistic about development from the second wave that will come off of Africa in the next 12 hours. And there is some hope for development out of the system south of Bermuda. So all is not lost.

MW

[Typhoon_Willie]

Yes we will have to wait and see!