Too Much Impatience. Look At These Historical Numbers:

[EmeraldCoast1]

It only seems that we are having a slow start to the season. All this speculation and anticipation has made me fall victim to the impatience that is dominating the threads on this board.

Maybe the impatience is due to the fact we haven't even had some TD's to watch. It has been quiet beyond quiet. But, when you consider history over the last decade, 2004 really isn't much different than any other year with a couple of exceptions (1997 and 2003). Below is a list of the number of named storms that occurred prior to this time for each year.

1995 - 3
1996 - 2
1997 - 5
1998 - 0
1999 - 1
2000 - 0
2001 - 1
2002 - 1
2003 - 4

Only 17 named storms by this time of year over the last decade. The span from 1999 to 2002 only saw one or no storms by this time.

My point here is to be patient. The chances of setting a record for latest named storm by date for a 10-year period are pretty slim. But even if that happens, the sea surface temperatures are getting hotter and deeper by the day. Don't forget the warm water pockets either that have not been stirred up by passing systems.

This time truly is the calm before the stormy season.

[NJCane]

Good point and just to note that 2000 which did not have a storm until August had 14 storms and 2001 which only had 1 which was Allison (the 2nd named storm was in August) there were 15 storms. This is typical, last year was just rare which is what I think we need to understand.

[Stormsfury]

Good point and just to note that 2000 which did not have a storm until August had 14 storms and 2001 which only had 1 which was Allison (the 2nd named storm was in August) there were 15 storms.

Good post, EmeraldCoast, and good points, NJCane ...

This is typical, last year was just rare which is what I think we need to understand.

Last year's length of tropical activity from the first to the last TC was unprecedented...

[The Dark Knight]

I agree.........

[rbaker]

history plays all what is said to be true, some seasons just get started earlier than others. When things get cranking they will really go. Just look at the EPAC, it had no storms in June. That is not a good omen for the atlantic. Trends seem to be when the EPAC is below normal, the Atlantic is usually more active.

[MWatkins]

Great point...

For example...in 1997 we had 4 storms by the end of July. We also had

Zero named storms in August.

One hurricane in September.

I'll take a slow start over that any time.

MW

[LAwxrgal]

Or, if you're like me, would take a slow hurricane season or a lot of fish storms that don't harm anybody

[Trader Ron]

Lawxgal,

I'm with you. Lot's of fish.

[bahamaswx]

If every hurricane was always a fish, I'd stop tracking them.

[Guest]

If every hurricane was always a fish, I'd stop tracking them.

Me too I mean whats the point.

[HurricaneBill]

I know! "Watched pots never boil"

Let's ignore the Atlantic for a week or two and then something will form!

[NJCane]

If every hurricane was always a fish, I'd stop tracking them.

Me too I mean whats the point.

I would still track them because they give incredible surf for days. I love the storms that make the curve between Bermuda and Hatteras because it means huge perfect waves.