Invest 97L out for wave at 11N 52 W

Wnghs2007 · #1 Postby **Wnghs2007** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 12:42 am

A new invest out for this decent looking wave in the Atlantic.... here is the link to the back-up NRL site....

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

lilbump3000 · #2 Postby **lilbump3000** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 12:49 am

Here we go again.

Another invest.

The question is will this one develop?

PTrackerLA · #3 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 12:50 am

It does look interesting and I can detect a slight twist in the IR satellite. We might have something to watch here.

whereverwx · #4 Postby **whereverwx** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 12:50 am

i hope it develops... it looks like it will

Wnghs2007 · #5 Postby **Wnghs2007** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 12:53 am

lilbump3000 wrote:Here we go again.

Another invest.

The question is will this one develop?

Well with it being under an upper level high. The shear should not be to much of a problem. The only limiting factor would be slight to moderate dry air ahead of it in the carribean. And there is also that nice little piece of land called Venezuela that looks to possibly be in its way. But besides that it looks pretty good. We just have to hope it keeps its convection.

With all that said, I still dont think we will see development, I could be wrong but there have been to many waves that have become invest only for nothing to occur out of them.

lilbump3000 · #6 Postby **lilbump3000** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 12:58 am

But this might have a chance. Its still holding a fair amount of convection. See all the other waves they would have losted all theres by this time of the night.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

Look at this loop and when its finish loading click the faster button a few times, and to me towards the end of the loop it looks like it has a spin, but im not sure.

Wnghs2007 · #7 Postby **Wnghs2007** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 1:00 am

Ok here you go....

Shear: Ok in this we can see an area of upper high pressure over the system providing light shear. We hope this can continue.

Now WV: On the water vapor below you can see some pretty dry air out to the west of the wave. It looks to have moderated some and getting a bit moister. But still overall pretty dry. We can hope this does not become a real inhibiting factor in the possible but not likely development of this wave.

FWBHurricane · #8 Postby **FWBHurricane** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 1:07 am

The system looks really impressive but it has to dodge Venezuela and some of the dry air in the eastern caribbean...we will have to watch but i really hope this becomes TD 1...atleast...

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #9 Postby **senorpepr** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 1:16 am

Wnghs2007 wrote:A new invest out for this decent looking wave in the Atlantic.... here is the link to the back-up NRL site....

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

Are you folks having problems getting on the NRL site? I'm not having problems running from a .mil to .mil connection, but what about you folks?

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #10 Postby **senorpepr** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 1:18 am

Invest 97L
19/0000Z
10.7N 51.0W
30 mph
n/a mb / n/a"

TS Zack · #11 Postby **TS Zack** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 1:49 am

The dry air seems to be diminishing somewhat. we may have a TD in the next 24 hours. Just wait and see.

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #12 Postby **senorpepr** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 2:12 am

Invest 97L
19/0600Z
11.0N 52.9W
30 mph
1014 mb / 29.94"

bahamaswx · #13 Postby **bahamaswx** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 2:51 am

It could simply be my desire for a TD to form leading me to say this, but I'm liking this wave. The overall structure isn't bad, dry air shouldn't be that much of an inhibiter, wind shear is rather weak--usually under 10kts--and should stay that way... and lots of warm water ahead of course. It is quite far south but should continue on to the W-WNW through the Caribbean. I'm having a tough time spotting any circulation whatsoever, but it looks as if visible imagery will reveal a slight spin. If it persists through 24hours we may finally have something to worry about.

Anonymous · #14 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 3:24 am

you can most definately see spin of some sort anyway.

Anonymous · #15 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 3:55 am

It's mid to low level.

Anonymous · #16 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 4:32 am

Thanks Jason! I knew I saw spin lol 8-)

Thunder44 · #17 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 4:34 am

We'll have to wait for visible pics, to see if this has an LLC. It's moving real fast though so, I don't think it wiill be much more than weak TS before it hits the islands.

Anonymous · #18 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 4:35 am

Thunder~n~Lightning wrote:Thanks Jason! I knew I saw spin lol

Anytime TnL :wink:

Anonymous · #19 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 4:36 am

Thunder44 wrote:We'll have to wait for visible pics, to see if this has an LLC. It's moving real fast though so, I don't think it wiill be much more than weak TS before it hits the islands.

It would have to organize pretty quickly to even get to TS status before reaching the islands. Calling for some slow development is risky enough for me. :lol:

#20 Postby **abajan** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 4:43 am

TropicalWxWatcher wrote:
Thunder44 wrote:We'll have to wait for visible pics, to see if this has an LLC. It's moving real fast though so, I don't think it wiill be much more than weak TS before it hits the islands.

It would have to organize pretty quickly to even get to TS status before reaching the islands. Calling for some slow development is risky enough for me.

Yep, I agree. If it was moving at 20 mph I'd be more concerned.

Invest 97L out for wave at 11N 52 W

Invest 97L out for wave at 11N 52 W

Re: Invest 97L out for wave at 11N 52 W

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