...IS GOING OUT TODAY!!!!!
454
ABNT20 KNHC 211516
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS/TPC NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT WED JUL 21 2004
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA HAS
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
NO EVIDENCE OF A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION...THERE ARE INDICATIONS
THAT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE TROPICAL WAVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
EVEN IF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA TODAY AND
LIKELY REACH JAMAICA TOMORROW AS THE WAVE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT ABOUT 20 MPH. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
$$
This is very interesting and as indicated the wave is slowing down.
11:30 TWO; Conditions Becoming Fav for Devlopment; Recon
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Moving W/NW???
TWO has the system moving WEST/NORTHWEST,not WEST, thru the Carib..hmmmm
More developed=more influenced by the weakness over the Bahamas?
More developed=more influenced by the weakness over the Bahamas?
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Typhoon_Willie
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hurricanemike
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POD
WNW still keeps it away from land.
No W wind yet...closest is a N wind in Kingston,Jamaica:
932
NOUS42 KNHC 211445
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI,FL.
1045 AM EDT WED 21 JULY 2004
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z JUL 2004
TCPOD NUMBER.....04-053
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA...NEAR JAMAICA
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 22/1200,1800Z A. 23/0000,0600Z
B. AFXXX 02BBA INVEST B. AFXXX 0301A CYCLONE
C. 22/0800Z C. 22/2030Z
D. 17.5N 76.5W D. 18.5N 80.0W
E. 22/1100Z TO 22/1830Z E. 22/2300Z TO 23/0630Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF
SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
3. REMARKS: A RESOURCES PERMITTING INVEST OF THIS AREA HAS
BEEN TASKED FOR THIS AFTERNOON (APPROXIMATELY 22/2100Z).
No W wind yet...closest is a N wind in Kingston,Jamaica:
932
NOUS42 KNHC 211445
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI,FL.
1045 AM EDT WED 21 JULY 2004
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z JUL 2004
TCPOD NUMBER.....04-053
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA...NEAR JAMAICA
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 22/1200,1800Z A. 23/0000,0600Z
B. AFXXX 02BBA INVEST B. AFXXX 0301A CYCLONE
C. 22/0800Z C. 22/2030Z
D. 17.5N 76.5W D. 18.5N 80.0W
E. 22/1100Z TO 22/1830Z E. 22/2300Z TO 23/0630Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF
SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
3. REMARKS: A RESOURCES PERMITTING INVEST OF THIS AREA HAS
BEEN TASKED FOR THIS AFTERNOON (APPROXIMATELY 22/2100Z).
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