GAHHHH!!!!!! WHAT HAPPENED TO 97L!!!!

The Dark Knight · #1 Postby **The Dark Knight** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 8:24 pm

I leave at 10:30 to go to work and it looks like she will become a TD by afternoon, then I come back at 9:00 and all of the convection is completely gone... It's like someone to a convection swatter and swatted all of the convection away.. Geez all of it is gone.... That happened quickly... Does anybody know why...??? It wasn't over the mts. of the DR, so..... Cold coastal waters??????

Stormchaser16 · #2 Postby **Stormchaser16** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 8:24 pm

Diurnal???????

Even so this is a bit much for even normal diurnal effect.......

Anonymous · #3 Postby **Anonymous** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 8:26 pm

Stormchaser16 wrote:Diurnal???????

Even so this is a bit much for even normal diurnal effect.......

It is mostly diurnal but subsidence is still involved. It isn't uncommon.

Stormchaser16 · #4 Postby **Stormchaser16** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 8:27 pm

I know....... hence my whole post "no potential yet"......

Seems to me there is more then just diurnal effect going on here, I think it's on its way out....... so close yet so far

The Dark Knight · #5 Postby **The Dark Knight** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 8:30 pm

One second everyone's celebrating because, the first TD of hurricane season 2004 is developing then, BOOM , all washed away...... Oh well..... A big wave off African coast emerging...

Stormchaser16 · #6 Postby **Stormchaser16** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 8:33 pm

Well...... i wouldnt go giving up on it totally yet....

Wait yea i would :wink:

Stormchaser16 · #7 Postby **Stormchaser16** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 8:35 pm

Can we stick the proverbial fork in it and call it done yet lol?

But in all seriousness........ the fat lady is on my balcony belching away haha

Alrite alrite im done, i do still think that if it holds together through tommorow then conditions will become increasingly condusive for development, however by the time it develops we need to throw one more wrench into the machine, and thats the fact that it will be running out of water, especially at the speed at which it is running along.....

Josephine96 · #8 Postby **Josephine96** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 8:37 pm

The fat lady hasn't sung here yet and my white flag is still at 1/2 staff lol..

Stormchaser16 · #9 Postby **Stormchaser16** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 8:40 pm

Lol...... well yea i do see the fat lady starting to set up the band and the music though, shes even done a few warmup tunes so far lol

#10 Postby **wxman57** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 8:58 pm

No, it wasn't diurnal. The solution is pretty simple. There was a fairly strong upper-level low northwest of the wave this morning. Now, if you know anything about the right entrance region of the jet core around a low, then you know that the southeast quadrant of an upper-level low can produce an area of enhanced lifting. As the wave approached this favorable right entrance region last night, a "hot spot" developed south of the Dominican Republic. This hot spot remained stationary as the wave passed beneath it. I recall someone posting this morning that the convection appeared to have run into a wall. Well, the wave was moving right along at the same speed as before, what was being observed was a stationary burst of convection beneath the hot spot.

By early afternoon, the wave was moving on past the hot spot, lift diminished considerably, and the convection died. Now, there is a strong ridge building NW of the disturbance. That means increasing NE-ENE flow in its path - not favorable for convection. Shear may decrease in the 36-60 hr time frame as the wave heads for the southern Yucatan Peninsula, but a building ridge over the Gulf means a continued W-WSW movement into southern Mexico.

Stormchaser16 · #11 Postby **Stormchaser16** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 9:04 pm

Ok so it wasnt diurnal, again see my post titled "no potential yet" which i mentioned the wave was dying but was scolded because many replied saying it was only the diurnal effect....... so if you could take a look at that post wxman and reply there i would appreciate it lol..... 8-)

#12 Postby **wxman57** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 9:07 pm

Stormchaser16 wrote:Ok so it wasnt diurnal, again see my post titled "no potential yet" which i mentioned the wave was dying but was scolded because many replied saying it was only the diurnal effect....... so if you could take a look at that post wxman and reply there i would appreciate it lol.....

Those that "scolded" you were, perhaps, guilty of a little wishful forecasting - no disrespect intended. We've all been guilty of that. My explanation was quite valid, there wasn't a diurnal effect (at least not any main effect).

Website · #13 Postby **Brent** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 9:22 pm

wxman57 wrote:but a building ridge over the Gulf means a continued W-WSW movement into southern Mexico.

BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!! HISS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :grr:

#14 Postby **tailgater** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 9:32 pm

Thats sounds like the most likely scenario I've heard yet nice job wxman 57. I'm thinking we need to watch and may sure the ridge builds in the SE US to where what's let of it, goes.

#15 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 10:15 pm

The Dark Knight wrote:One second everyone's celebrating because, the first TD of hurricane season 2004 is developing then, BOOM , all washed away...... Oh well..... A big wave off African coast emerging...

Sorry but I have to laugh; everytime we have a system that could become a tropical depression or storm but it just poof away, what we do is to watch what is coming out of Africa. I still believe it has some chances of development once it get pass Jamaica right south of Cuba.

GAHHHH!!!!!! WHAT HAPPENED TO 97L!!!!

GAHHHH!!!!!! WHAT HAPPENED TO 97L!!!!

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