Shear.

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
Stormcenter
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6685
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:27 am
Location: Houston, TX

Shear.

#1 Postby Stormcenter » Thu Jul 22, 2004 9:13 am

Shear I think was the main problem.
If the low pressure survives the shear for
the next 48 hours then things COULD
get interesting but I wouldn't bet the ranch
on it. :flag:
0 likes   
Top
Air Force Met
Military Met
Military Met
Posts: 4372
Age: 56
Joined: Tue Jul 08, 2003 9:30 am
Location: Roan Mountain, TN

#2 Postby Air Force Met » Thu Jul 22, 2004 9:35 am

Vertical shear...it was moving too fast. The sw shear was nothing it could not have survived IF it had not been moving at 25 kts. The lower level vort max that spun up is only a couple of hundred miles off the central american coast now. It was the forward speed. The upper level winds weren't great for development...but nothing that would tear it up if it had not been moving at 25 kts in the opposite direction. When they move that fast they have an extremely difficult time closing off the southern part of the circulation. It's a common problem in that area of the carribean.
0 likes   
Top
corpusbreeze
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 386
Joined: Fri Jan 02, 2004 3:57 pm

#3 Postby corpusbreeze » Thu Jul 22, 2004 9:52 am

Shear and dry air from the west. Hate to say it but this guy is history. Even IF it could make a come back Central America would be the end of the line for it.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
stormchazer
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2462
Joined: Fri Aug 29, 2003 12:00 pm
Location: Lakeland, Florida
Contact:
Contact stormchazer

#4 Postby stormchazer » Thu Jul 22, 2004 11:43 am

Dry, sinking air seems to have killed it.
0 likes   
The posts or stuff said are NOT an official forecast and my opinion alone. Please look to the NHC and NWS for official forecasts and products.

Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged

Opinions my own.
Top
User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9628
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Gulf of Gavin Newsom

#5 Postby Steve » Thu Jul 22, 2004 1:23 pm

>>dry air

There were several factors, but the dry air had to be the main player. It was a battle and there is no more dry air down there (supressed really far south) and there's no more 97L. Life in the tropics I guess.

Steve
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google Adsense [Bot] and 105 guests