This brief sentence in the 8 a.m. TWD.......

[dixiebreeze]

seems to indicate that the tropics will be very active real soon. Anyone agree?

PRESSURE AND WIND SHEAR IS BELOW AVERAGE IN
THE DEEP TROPICS...

[HURAKAN]

Is really good to hear such an information, but if this dry air continues in the tropics development will be hard.

[Rainband]

ALONG WITH LOTS OF DRY AIR IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS (TYPICAL FOR JULY).

[rainstorm]

there is a huge dry air surge heading south from the azores

[Steve H.]

Hopefully the tropics will continue to produce waves off the African continent. Get the feeling that the CV may have shot its load too early, when conditions are less than marginal. Timing is everything

[Lindaloo]

there is a huge dry air surge heading south from the azores

Here we go.

[jlauderdal]

seems to indicate that the tropics will be very active real soon. Anyone agree?

PRESSURE AND WIND SHEAR IS BELOW AVERAGE IN
THE DEEP TROPICS...

Pot is boiling, lid is coming off, explosive development soon, the wave train has left the station, etc. nuff said. wait till august.

[Aquawind]

Looks like this last wave has pulled the ITCZ even further north off the coast of africa...

[Rainband]

cool

[BayouVenteux]

Get the feeling that the CV may have shot its load too early, when conditions are less than marginal. Timing is everything

Kind of what one might expect during the active phase of the MJO in July. CLIMO IS KING! Conditions are darn near perfectly normal, actually.

Have patience...the dry air will lessen, the ITCZ will continue to inch northward, and the active phase of the MJO in the Atlantic basin during August will begin to tell the tale as to whether or not we have the anticipated active season.

It's a long wait in the paddock, but the horses will run soon.

[Thunder44]

Everybody keeps saying something is about pop, or the lid is off, but I'm not going to believe it until the something actually happens.

[rainstorm]

Looks like this last wave has pulled the ITCZ even further north off the coast of africa...

actually, if you look at a loop of the area, the dry air surge is sinking all the wave below 10n. the wave off africa will run right into the very dry air and should poof

[Derek Ortt]

that looks like a classic sal surge, no chance of a CV system anytime soon

[Aquawind]

Actually I thought the massive wave is simply pushing into the existing dry air and yes it will take the brunt of the dry air..but the ITCZ has behind the wave looks to be a bit further north..as the convection is nearly at 20N on the continent..and a little flatter than past months..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

The ULL to the north of the loop is pulling north and simply leaving dry air..The wave is pushing through the dry air.



I was simply implying it is flattening out..like the mean..but still north of mean if you have read my earlier ITCZ thread..

[Aquawind]

Here is a awesome shot from Today of the SAL behind the wave pushing west off the coast..I posted of few of these recently on a nother thread..Cool pics of Africa..

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/real ... T042061205

[Steve H.]

Maybe we can all chip in and throw some sod on west Africa.....Floritam may take

[The Dark Knight]

Hahahahahahahahaha.........