GFS long range opens the Cape Verde season early?

[cycloneye]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... loop.shtml

A very long range loop of 384 hours that shows 2 strong low pressures emerging west Africa in the next 1-2 weeks.But of course this long range run has to be taken with a grain of salt because first it is way ahead in time,second it would be more credible if other global models join the GFS showing this scenario and also the GFS may in later runs drop this scenario.Any comments about this are welcomed and if anyone has data from other global models you can post them here too.

[vbhoutex]

IFthat verifies the train has definitely rolled out of the station and we are going to be very busy tracking!!!

[bahamaswx]

Even so, through 144hrs it's already got one strong area of low pressure established off the coast.

[Derek Ortt]

Likely a rediculous outcome due to the fact that mathematically, a forecast that far out is impossible. The atmosphere is a system of linear equations (of 10's of thousands) with the same number of unknowns. The computers can only give good approximations out to a couple of weeks and even then, due to randomness, there is a very high margin of error in these solutions.

Moral of the above in simpler terms, 384 hour forecasts ar enot worth the paper they are printed on

[cycloneye]

Likely a rediculous outcome due to the fact that mathematically, a forecast that far out is impossible. The atmosphere is a system of linear equations (of 10's of thousands) with the same number of unknowns. The computers can only give good approximations out to a couple of weeks and even then, due to randomness, there is a very high margin of error in these solutions.

Moral of the above in simpler terms, 384 hour forecasts ar enot worth the paper they are printed on

Good comment Derek and that is why I say it has to be taken with a grain of salt.The best thing would be for a more credible scenario bringing more global models to this and see if they have the same thing.

[jlauderdal]

IFthat verifies the train has definitely rolled out of the station and we are going to be very busy tracking!!!

If that thing comes even remotly close to verifying than the Dolphins will win the Super Bowl.

[USAwx1]

Likely a rediculous outcome due to the fact that mathematically, a forecast that far out is impossible. The atmosphere is a system of linear equations (of 10's of thousands) with the same number of unknowns. The computers can only give good approximations out to a couple of weeks and even then, due to randomness, there is a very high margin of error in these solutions.

Moral of the above in simpler terms, 384 hour forecasts ar enot worth the paper they are printed on

Which is why the GFS (In MY opinion) should NOT be run past 240hrs.

[abajan]

IFthat verifies the train has definitely rolled out of the station and we are going to be very busy tracking!!!

That's a very big if! LOL

[MWatkins]

One minor note...384/24 is 16 days. 16 days from now is August 8/9th. Although the specific soultion is probably not going to happen...we will be right on the edge of the most active part of the season. Who knows what will be going on then.

MW

[Anonymous]

All models... Canadian, UKMET, AVN, and nogaps indicate a low pressure coming off Africa during the next 3-5 days.... Check the SLP model loops at this link http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/

[Aquawind]

All models... Canadian, UKMET, AVN, and nogaps indicate a low pressure coming off Africa during the next 3-5 days.... Check the SLP model loops at this link http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/

Here it would be...

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/real ... T042061030

[cycloneye]

Interesting pic there Aquawind.

[Guest]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara/analysis/carib/gfs/06/index_slp_l_loop.shtml

A very long range loop of 384 hours that shows 2 strong low pressures emerging west Africa in the next 1-2 weeks.But of course this long range run has to be taken with a grain of salt because first it is way ahead in time,second it would be more credible if other global models join the GFS showing this scenario and also the GFS may in later runs drop this scenario.Any comments about this are welcomed and if anyone has data from other global models you can post them here too.

Man if the GFS long range verified about 2% percent of time in the Winter I'd have at least 5 historical blizzards every year!

[george_r_1961]

Ok even if these systems coming off the COA manage to develop are conditions further west favorable? If something does develop and it runs into a hostile environment its "bye bye" storm. Last time I looked..which was about 18 hours ago, things werent looking all that great.