GOM frontal boundary a cause for concern?

[Portastorm]

Should we be concerned at all about the frontal boundary draped across the north central and northwestern GOM??

Just curious if we might be in for what JB of Accuweather calls "home grown" tropical activity.

What say ye oh S2K experts?

[rbaker]

Im not expert but anytime you have a frontal boundary that's stalled in the gom, it has to be watched esp. at the tale end for cd. However, this usually takes a while

[alicia-w]

Here's what the weather guys at Eglin had to pass on this morning:

The thunderstorm activity over Eglin this morning is being triggered by a non-tropical weather feature that has worked its way down to the coast from the lower Mississippi Valley. This feature is expected to persist in our area and over the north-central Gulf of Mexico over the next couple of days. Every so often, if a non-tropical feature, such as this low pressure trough, persists long enough over the very warm waters offshore, there is the potential for it to develop into a tropical system…so we need to keep an eye on it. The trough may be enhanced by the northern edge of a tropical wave that moved across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico yesterday and is now located over the southwest Gulf of Mexico.
Elsewhere, there is not much going on in the tropics. A small low southeast of Long Island, New York may actually develop into a depression or tropical storm briefly before it heads out to sea toward the colder open waters of the North Atlantic.

[Portastorm]

Thanks for sharing that!

Those Eglin guys really write educational and informative summaries. Good stuff.

[Rainband]

198
fxus62 ktbw 261722
afdtbw


West central and southwest Florida forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay area - Ruskin Florida
120 PM EDT Monday Jul 26 2004


Short term (tonight through wed)...have made very little change to the
current forecast. Upper level trough center over the Ohio River valley
on Tuesday...shifts east-northeast on Wednesday and weakens some. The southern edge of
this upper trough will touch the southeast U.S. Through the period. Very
light low level flow...becoming south-southwest each afternoon...which should
help to focus best afternoon probability of precipitation inland. Deep layer moisture
remains sufficient for at least climatology probability of precipitation 40-50%...with likely
probability of precipitation inland during the afternoon. Given light flow and high precipitable waters
around 2 inches...locally heavy rainfall will be a threat. Temperatures
near climatology.


Extended (wed night through mon)...the 12z GFS is again developing a
weak surface low over the northern Gulf or just along the Gulf Coast...
but this time it is earlier in the period. In fact...this low is in
place by Wednesday night and just meanders along the Gulf Coast and
southeastern states through Friday before opening up into a trough
type feature by Saturday. Since this isn't a likely scenario...I
have left the generally south to southeasterly surface flow in the
forecast right through Monday.


With weak surface flow in place along with deep tropical moisture...we
will see at least scattered coverage of showers and thunderstorms
each afternoon along sea breeze boundaries. There is some indication
in the models of some drier air moving in around the beginning of
next week...but not enough to significantly limit afternoon shower
coverage.


With local land breezes at night and sea breezes each day...
temperatures will be within a degree or two of climatology.


&&


Marine...no big concerns through the period (sat). Generally south-southwest
flow of 10 kts or less...should focus convection during late night
and morning hours.


&&


Fire weather...no concerns.


&&


Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 076 090 076 090 / 30 50 30 50
fmy 074 090 074 090 / 30 50 30 50
gif 075 091 075 091 / 30 60 30 60
srq 073 089 073 089 / 30 40 30 40
bkv 071 090 071 090 / 30 50 30 50


&&


Tbw watches/warnings/advisories...none.


&&


$$


Morales/jillson

[PTrackerLA]

**waiting for Derecho's post on how less than one storm per year forms in the gulf yada yada yada**

Just joking with you derecho

[BreinLa]

hehehehehe too funny PT just joking with ya too Derecho

[george_r_1961]

Yes the tail end of decaying fronts sometimes spin up tropical systems. It seems to be more common in the GOM in June and July and off the SE coast..especially the Carolinas, in October or November.