Look ...

[Stormsfury]

I'm seeing more and more with the "what's with the slow start?" and such .. well, have some news for you ... it really isn't a slow start, it's a NORMAL start.

People fail to see that this is really nothing unusual ... June only averages one storm every two years, and July averages about 1½ storms every two years, so roughly 3 storms per 4 years. But what has happened (since 1995) with all the active seasons, and early starts to the season that people have come to expect it every year, and the bottom line is that it won't ... no matter how much we moan, complain, etc. about it. It's gonna happen soon enough ... (look at several other threads for details).. There's a spoil factor.

The season will kick into gear, and likely will time in with the next wet phase of the MJO which should occur sometime in the next 10-20 days. (haven't looked at MJO data in the past 2-3 days).

It's also very, very frustrating where the mets and sound amateurs alike are supplying ample sets of data and show sound reasoning and explain through what's going on, only to basically see some people not even bothering to read it before posting.

Sure ... we want a storm ... we want to have one now ... but starting 100's of threads about why the slow start and this season's over, and such isn't going to change when Mother Nature's good and ready to give us what we want ...

Be patient ... she'll deliver soon enough ...

SF

[cycloneye]

Great post SF.

[Stormchaser16]

Agreed totally..... the posts about the season, with the attitude that its very annoying and very slow is crap.

Let me say this- those posts complaining about the season are VERY ANNOYING.

[lilbump3000]

Well if those posts are VERY ANNOYING to you, well then DON'T READ THE POSTS.

[Stormchaser16]

They are very annoying to EVERYONE, why did you come into this post huh?

Fact is, those posts are VERY UNTRUTHFUL as proved here by SF, and they are just nonsense

[Derecho]

What's sort of frustrating are two things:

1) A good number of the slow season posts are from people who have been around tropical boards for 3+ years and frankly should know better....

2) People seem impervious to reason and data and seem to be totally guided by emotion...

[ameriwx2003]

Great Post SF and agree 100%%..!! Here is a graph that shows the meat of the season is yet to come:):)

http://deved.meted.ucar.edu/hurrican/st ... asons1.gif

[Steve]

Agreed. It's WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY too early to bag on the season. But while we're bagging, anyone dispute we haven't had 2 or 3 TD's (based on textbood definition) yet? Perhaps had NHC eased up and classified a couple of things by the book (DR/Haiti Low, Central Gulf Low for a day, 98L with the low level center, etc.), we'd only be awaiting our first named storm rather than the first classification.

Steve

[Rainband]

Great Post Mike.

[PTrackerLA]

While statistically speaking it's not a slow start, it IS a slow start compared to the last few years and that's what people remember first and that's why we have all the "annoying" posts. I'll say the season has bored me so far since I've been used to seeing early season storms. But when it gets going we definately won't be bored.

[frederic79]

Patience is tough to come by these days, but it's still a virture. Think about this... how many times have we seen activity early on that had little chance of becoming significant due to climotology and cooler water, etc. then watched August more or less come and go without much to talk about because of the frequency of development early on. As we enter August, we may have some of the most fertile conditions in a long time materializing WITHOUT the cool, dry fall air to contend with. Timing is everything. I get impatient, too, but I'd rather wait a little longer to see IT ALL COME TOGETHER at once than track blobs that barely reach TS strength before they make landfall.

Hang in there, folks... we are in for a ride.

[vbhoutex]

AMEN SF AND DERECHO!! I'm just wondering how many times we have to post this to get it through peoples heads?!?!

[frederic79]

Patience is tough to come by these days, but it's still a virture. Think about this... how many times have we seen activity early on that had little chance of becoming significant due to climotology and cooler water, etc. then watched August more or less come and go without much to talk about because of the frequency of development early on. As we enter August, we may have some of the most fertile conditions in a long time materializing WITHOUT the cool, dry fall air to contend with. Timing is everything. I get impatient, too, but I'd rather wait a little longer to see IT ALL COME TOGETHER at once than track blobs that barely reach TS strength before they make landfall.

Hang in there, folks... we are in for a ride.

[Swimdude]

Not to "egg on" those who are annoyed with this season, but by this time last year, a grand total of four storms had already formed. (And a total of seven depressions!) Perhaps this is why we are all used to an active season by now - because it's occured so often in the recent past.

Just a newbie giving his two cents.

[vbhoutex]

Not to "egg on" those who are annoyed with this season, but by this time last year, a grand total of four storms had already formed. (And a total of seven depressions!) Perhaps this is why we are all used to an active season by now - because it's occured so often in the recent past.

Just a newbie giving his two cents.

Which is what I have stated several times elsewhere in this forum!!! Our last several years have not been "normal" compared to climatology and UNFORTUNATELY that is about all anyone remembers, even with quite a few posts with facts by the more versed mets on this site to the contrary. THAT is why it becomes frustrating!!!

[Stormchaser16]

No please, egg on the ones complaining as much as u want lol!

[Stephanie]

Well if those posts are VERY ANNOYING to you, well then DON'T READ THE POSTS.

EXCUSE ME, but SF is a FORECASTER HERE at S2K. Believe it or not, but there are some people here that ask intelligent questions because they know they'll get intelligent, honest feedback. Our pro and amatuer mets have posted MANY TIMES about the what and whys of this hurricane season. May I suggest you read some of the posts?

[chadtm80]

Not only is he a Forecaster, but he is a Mod.. He will read any thread that gets posted...

If you guys dont want to respect the opinions of the pro's here then thats your problem.. But I assume you all are here for the same reason I am.. And thats to learn.. So do just that.. Listen to these guys..

[Lindaloo]

Well said Steph and Chad.

[Stephanie]

Not only is he a Forecaster, but he is a Mod.. He will read any thread that gets posted...

Well respected one at that!

Thanks Lindaloo!