12Z ETA/GFS STILL APPEAR TO BE OVER-AMPLIFYING FEATURES SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS RUNS OWING TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS. SEE HPC MODEL
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR FURTHER DETAILS. FORECAST DETAILS WILL
RELY HEAVILY ON CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TODAY/TONIGHT AND ALSO ON THE
MAGNITUDE OF AMPLIFICATION THAT INDEED OCCURS.
A MCS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CORN BELT AND UPPER MS
VLY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TSTMS SHOULD INTENSIFY ALONG SRN EDGE
OF THIS MCS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS. MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS/HODOGRAPHS VCNTY LOW AND E-W BOUNDARY THROUGH NRN
IND AND NRN OH WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES GIVEN VERY STRONG
LOW LEVEL SHEAR. AGAIN MODELS MAY BE OVER-AMPLIFYING FEATURES. IF
MODEL GUIDANCE IS CORRECT...SUPERCELL TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGH
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY WITH INITIAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT.
MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE FOR A BOW ECHO OR TWO TO TRACK FROM THE
MID/UPPER MS VLY ESEWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST TO THE OH VLY. BOUNDARY
LAYER DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST /70S/ AND MODEST
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WILL EXIST ABOVE H85. THUS...KINEMATIC/
THERMODYNAMIC SET-UPS WILL BE HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR BOW ECHOES WITH
DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL AND FUTURE OUTLOOKS MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED.
(per SPC 1730 outlook)
