Well Well Well on TD

[Vortex]

Models are converging on keeping this system just south of Haiti and in fact its becoming apparent this system will likely be somewhere near Jamaica or just south of E/Central Cuba in 3-4 days. If this verifies the window for strengthening increases and and we would likely see the system cross Cuba and head towards Florida/EGom or up the
coast depending on how deep the trough is.....This system isn't over by a long shot!! The 00z short-term ETA is coming in and at H-66 you can make out the wave and also not the frontal boundary to the north which would likely induce a more nw component.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_066l.gif

[boca]

Vortex does SE FL really need to watch this?

[Stormchaser16]

Yes SE FL needs to pay close attention to this wave....

In my discussion "examining the models" i mentioned that if the system doesnt develop into anything then the Bermuda high would be strong enough to keep the system on a westward track, also the coreolis effect helps as well. So when TD2 became an open wave it was time for me to go back and say hey, this probably isnt heading out to sea anymore..... this was a MAIN concern in writing that forecast and one that troubled me alot. And now it is coming true, the further west this system gets, the further south it will later stay. IMO, SE Fl is in a prime position to be hit if this system begins to develop a little bit(coreolis effect would turn it more WNW as the system finds the weakness in the Bermuda high) and the trough will also begin to pick it up as well. SE FL needs to monitor the progress of the system very closely.

[boca]

Thanks Stormchaser16 for the info I'm originally fron New Jersey

[Stormchaser16]

Awesome, Im from right outside Flemington, whereabouts are you from?

[Brent]

what about the shear StormChaser? It looks pretty strong. You think it'll relax?

[Stormchaser16]

Well...... alot of the trouble it was having with shear was relative to its motion, if(and it looks like it has) slows down(also a sign it should begin a WNW track) then it will lose the relative shear and only have to worry about directional shear.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

Which unfortunately is pretty strong ATT.
Let me see if i can find a shear forecast map.

[Stormchaser16]

Ehhhhhh

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/shr_12.gif
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/shr_24.gif
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/shr_36.gif
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/shr_48.gif

Doesnt look too great

[HalloweenGale]

I can see that TD(or former TD) will hit florida, as Bonnie(I hope.)

[soonertwister]

I can see that TD(or former TD) will hit florida, as Bonnie(I hope.)

What is your problem? That is just disgusting. You need potty training.

[MWatkins]

I can see that TD(or former TD) will hit florida, as Bonnie(I hope.)

What is your problem? That is just disgusting. You need potty training.

Good to see you SoonerTwister...how are things back in my old stomping ground?

MW