FIRST NHC model runs for 92L.....

Derecho · #1 Postby **Derecho** » Wed Aug 04, 2004 11:46 pm

Seems nobody noticed (I didn't notice till Stormtrakker picked it up) but the largely forgotten 92L had it's first NHC model run tonight. Has a little convection in the last few hours too.

lilbump3000 · #2 Postby **lilbump3000** » Wed Aug 04, 2004 11:51 pm

I might be wrong, but i dont see this system developing.

#3 Postby **MWatkins** » Wed Aug 04, 2004 11:56 pm

Looking at latest IR imagery you can see a well-defined but broad envelope with a fairly well-defined circulation embedded within.

Interesting that the track models take the system to the WNW then west then even a little back to the WSW over time.

Didn't see any SHIPS guidance, but the SHF5 model has this system up to hurricane status on day 5 (68 knots).

MW

boca · #4 Postby **boca** » Thu Aug 05, 2004 12:00 am

Where are you referring,old TD2?

lilbump3000 · #5 Postby **lilbump3000** » Thu Aug 05, 2004 12:01 am

No this is invest 92L, the one that is behind TD2.

boca · #6 Postby **boca** » Thu Aug 05, 2004 12:02 am

oh, ok thanks

lilbump3000 · #7 Postby **lilbump3000** » Thu Aug 05, 2004 12:03 am

Heres a map of the models plot if anyone hasnt seen them yet.

Valkhorn · #8 Postby **Valkhorn** » Thu Aug 05, 2004 12:07 am

Hmm. It looks to me that the deep trough will have a slight effect on pulling it north, but if the ridge builds back then it could easily be nudged further west.

If it misses the tropical dead zone and develops in the next day or two we should definately monitor it.

Anonymous · #9 Postby **Anonymous** » Thu Aug 05, 2004 1:57 am

Valkhorn wrote:Hmm. It looks to me that the deep trough will have a slight effect on pulling it north, but if the ridge builds back then it could easily be nudged further west.

If it misses the tropical dead zone and develops in the next day or two we should definately monitor it.

HMMMMMM............ :eek:

Aquawind · #10 Postby **Aquawind** » Thu Aug 05, 2004 5:04 am

Nice qscat this am..still whimpy convection..

http://manati.wwb.noaa.gov/dataimages21 ... MBas26.png

#11 Postby **wxman57** » Thu Aug 05, 2004 5:57 am

I think I like the LBAR track, it's such a great model.... :wink:

yoda · #12 Postby **yoda** » Thu Aug 05, 2004 7:52 am

Hmmm... interesting. Is this the one the globals are picking up on to develop?

Aquawind · #13 Postby **Aquawind** » Thu Aug 05, 2004 7:58 am

Not much anymore..Fish earlier I believe.. The system behind has the AVN,UKMET, with NOGAPS recognizing something..

http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/

yoda · #14 Postby **yoda** » Thu Aug 05, 2004 8:00 am

You mean 92L is the system models are picking up on right? I am just making sure...

Aquawind · #15 Postby **Aquawind** » Thu Aug 05, 2004 8:02 am

yoda wrote:You mean 92L is the system models are picking up on right? I am just making sure...

Not anymore..little reflection of the wave on the maps..no development..they did have a fish at one pint.. :wink:

Website · #16 Postby **Brent** » Thu Aug 05, 2004 8:16 am

lilbump3000 wrote:Heres a map of the models plot if anyone hasnt seen them yet.

Reminds me of Isabel last year. :eek:

yoda · #17 Postby **yoda** » Thu Aug 05, 2004 8:18 am

LOL Brent... hopefully this will be no Isabel... :eek:

FIRST NHC model runs for 92L.....

FIRST NHC model runs for 92L.....

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