Ia it possible the models are pointing west is because it's still considered a wave and not a TD or TS?
WTNT21 KNGU 082330
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 090000Z AUG 04//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 21.0N3 86.0W4 TO 24.0N6 91.0W0
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM
AGERY AT 090000Z9 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 21.0N3 86.0W4. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF
DECREASE WIND SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. SURFACE OBS
INDICATE WEAK SURFACE CIRCULATION AND INCREASED WINDS OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN THIS SYSTEM EXHIBITING
INCREASED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND CONVECTION. SYSTEM MOVEMENT
FORECAST IS WEST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH NEXT 24 HOURS. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE ANALYZED FROM SATELLITE DATA IS 83F(30C). AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
SYSTEM MONDAY AT 1800Z
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
100000Z1.
//
is it possible.
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 61 guests