TD3 Projected Track may Change if TD2 Redevelops...

[MWatkins]

A couple of very quick things...of course more information later on as time permits...

1. Initial forecasts, paticually the first couple of offical forecasts on weak/developing systems are very low confidence deals. Intensity and exact center location, and initial motion are bigtime variables for the guidance, and there is little confidence in any of these variables right now. Let's watch the trends and see what the models do with the next couple of runs.

2. If 91L redevelops into TD2 again and intensifies...it's recurvature could ultimately impact the track of TD3. The 12Z GFS DOES initalize TD3 well...but does NOT develop TD2 at all. Since the GFDL runs against the GFS background...TD2 non-development would impact that model track too.

TD2 would likely create a weakness in the ridge to the north and potentially shift the track of TD3 to the right side of the NHC track.

Of course we have time to watch but the track will likely change some in the coming advisories...especially if TD2 redevelops.

MW

[Typhoon_Willie]

Very good point there Mike!

[Stephanie]

Thanks for the information Mike!

[Aquawind]

Wow..!! Fantastic Point!! Highly Reasonable..Not so good for Florida..

[Brent]

Thanks for the info Mike. Do you see anything that could recurve TD 3 so it entirely misses the U.S.?

[Guest]

The reason why the GFS and other models do NOT handle the remains of TD 2 well is b/c there is NOTHING to handle. I do NOT see any SIGNIFICANT development...
could it make it back to TD status before it crashes into northern Mexico?

Yeah maybe. Big whoop.

A couple of very quick things...of course more information later on as time permits...

1. Initial forecasts, paticually the first couple of offical forecasts on weak/developing systems are very low confidence deals. Intensity and exact center location, and initial motion are bigtime variables for the guidance, and there is little confidence in any of these variables right now. Let's watch the trends and see what the models do with the next couple of runs.

2. If 91L redevelops into TD2 again and intensifies...it's recurvature could ultimately impact the track of TD3. The 12Z GFS DOES initalize TD3 well...but does NOT develop TD2 at all. Since the GFDL runs against the GFS background...TD2 non-development would impact that model track too.

TD2 would likely create a weakness in the ridge to the north and potentially shift the track of TD3 to the right side of the NHC track.

Of course we have time to watch but the track will likely change some in the coming advisories...especially if TD2 redevelops.

MW

[Lindaloo]

EXCELLENT analysis MW!!

[jlauderdal]

Wow..!! Fantastic Point!! Highly Reasonable..Not so good for Florida..

Nothing will hit Florida south of tampa, doesnt happen, if debby couldnt make it when it was making a beeline for miami than nothing is coming here.

[CocoaBill]

Wow..!! Fantastic Point!! Highly Reasonable..Not so good for Florida..

Nothing will hit Florida south of tampa, doesnt happen, if debby couldnt make it when it was making a beeline for miami than nothing is coming here.

Wow - interesting logic, jlauderdal. Are you saying if Debby didn't do it, no other system can?

[Aquawind]

Wow..!! Fantastic Point!! Highly Reasonable..Not so good for Florida..

Nothing will hit Florida south of tampa, doesnt happen, if debby couldnt make it when it was making a beeline for miami than nothing is coming here.

I hear ya.. Thats 2 fried cajun Crow..and a order of Crow Fritters..

[jlauderdal]

Wow..!! Fantastic Point!! Highly Reasonable..Not so good for Florida..

Nothing will hit Florida south of tampa, doesnt happen, if debby couldnt make it when it was making a beeline for miami than nothing is coming here.

Wow - interesting logic, jlauderdal. Are you saying if Debby didn't do it, no other system can?

I was being a smart ass. of course this one or any other can hit us. It's out of our control at any rate. Should be real interesting week around sofla as this thing develops and the track becomes more clear especially if the track starts leaning to the right.

[stormernie]

Hi Mike now that Bonnie has develop in the Gulf, the future track of TD3/Charlie will be affected and it may signal trouble for Central Cuba and the Florida Keys. Also, I believe that TD3 center will be relocated further north with time.

Time will tell[/list]

[Three Blind Mice]

This might just be the First Call on Charley! Watching the events unfold.

MW you might just get the whole enchilada, while the rest enjoy their crow!!

[Stormsfury]

Another complication, everyone ...

Bonnie is NOT a very large system, by any means ... and may end up having very little impact IF she cannot get her act together ...

[Dean4Storms]

The reason why the GFS and other models do NOT handle the remains of TD 2 well is b/c there is NOTHING to handle. I do NOT see any SIGNIFICANT development...
could it make it back to TD status before it crashes into northern Mexico?

Yeah maybe. Big whoop.

A couple of very quick things...of course more information later on as time permits...

1. Initial forecasts, paticually the first couple of offical forecasts on weak/developing systems are very low confidence deals. Intensity and exact center location, and initial motion are bigtime variables for the guidance, and there is little confidence in any of these variables right now. Let's watch the trends and see what the models do with the next couple of runs.

2. If 91L redevelops into TD2 again and intensifies...it's recurvature could ultimately impact the track of TD3. The 12Z GFS DOES initalize TD3 well...but does NOT develop TD2 at all. Since the GFDL runs against the GFS background...TD2 non-development would impact that model track too.

TD2 would likely create a weakness in the ridge to the north and potentially shift the track of TD3 to the right side of the NHC track.

Of course we have time to watch but the track will likely change some in the coming advisories...especially if TD2 redevelops.

MW

DT, how do you like your Crow, Rare, Med, Med. Well??

[Stormsfury]

Come on, everyone ...

lay off a little bit ...

[The Dark Knight]

LOL......

[Steve]

LOL. I guess this is one of those lessons for never-say-never, eh?

I'm going to have to disagree a little with the general consensus on this thread. I think Bonnie is an east Gulf threat and have said that since last Monday (and oh yeah Derecho, long before Joe B had anything on its end game ). It's likely to move in ahead of a fairly strong cold front progged into the Gulf by Friday. Behind that front will be a fairly strong high pressure system pushing SEward. Depending on timing, I'd be willing to bet that whatever weakness shows up doesn't do much else than stall TD #3 if that. (It's possible it could draw it northward for a time.) But ultimately, the fate may lie at the hands of what Typhoon Rananim does. I've been watching that North then west turn put out by the JTWC. Their track moved a bit farther south (below Shanghai) today. That obviously correlates to a pretty strong ridge in the SE. And while I think it's way too early to even guess on what might be happening late next week, a shot for South Texas certainly isn't out of the question. We'll see.

Steve

[MWatkins]

There are still a myriad of possibilities. I don't expect 3 to dissipate...but 2 is still a relatively small system...and history tells us that these systems can strengthen and weaken rapidly. It could poof down tomorrow and that would be the end of it...and there will be no appreciable effect on the ridge down the road.

And even so...there a lot of ifs in my post...so it will be a little eaiser for me to back away from those comments should DT turn out to be correct in terms of significant development...and he could still turn out to be right. Too early one way or another...

I'm still betting on the track from days 3/5 of TD3 to end up to the right of the TPC track...but that also hinges on development to a 50/60 knot system in 72 hours.

We'll see...I suppose.

MW

[Stormsfury]

There are still a myriad of possibilities. I don't expect 3 to dissipate...but 2 is still a relatively small system...and history tells us that these systems can strengthen and weaken rapidly. It could poof down tomorrow and that would be the end of it...and there will be no appreciable effect on the ridge down the road.

And even so...there a lot of ifs in my post...so it will be a little eaiser for me to back away from those comments should DT turn out to be correct in terms of significant development...and he could still turn out to be right. Too early one way or another...

I'm still betting on the track from days 3/5 of TD3 to end up to the right of the TPC track...but that also hinges on development to a 50/60 knot system in 72 hours.

We'll see...I suppose.

MW

Life is good, ain't it, Mike ...

*SF stocks up of a ton of highly caffeinated Live Wire Mountain Dews for the long haul*