Bonnie ...
Bonnie hasn't really better any better organized tonight ... winds should remain at 40 kts, maybe a slight bump to 45 kts SHOULD convection around the tight low-level center still generate some rather intense convection around the center ... Bonnie appears to have slowed some this evening, and is somewhat being affected by some light E or NE shear ... the model guidance is generally spread towards a recurvature to the NE and making landfall in the FL panhandle and then through the SE'ern States thereafter ... right now, I believe that the primary threat could actually be more in the way of severe weather and tornadoes in the NE quad as the system makes landfall ... Flooding doesn't appear to be a huge concern since an unusually deep trough for this time of year should keep Bonnie moving quite progressively as the trough swings down and catches it ...
Charley ...
T.D. #3 IMHO looks like Tropical Storm Charley already ... some convection is rebuilding around the center tonight as the convection well ahead fans out and away from the center, allowing for a little more in the way of inflow towards the LLC ... the system has a very pronounced MLC and has that buzzsaw like appearance to it already ... the cyclone has good banding features and a healthy looking outflow.
IMHO, the future Charley has all the potential in the world to become a significant storm, however, it'll take some time to consolidate itself for now, since the cyclone has such a large envelope ... typically, once these large systems are able to consolidate, they can take off with some startling effects, and sometimes can go through intensification periods that last 24-36 hours before levelling off ... one of the things that has me very concerned is that SHOULD Charley become a significant system, there's really nowhere it CAN'T go that at some point it won't encounter land ...
Ok ... why I think Bonnie won't become too strong, and Charley has the potential to become a significant storm ...
TCHP and SST over 26ºC depths ...
One of the parameters of rapid intensifications lies with the SST's and the DEPTH of 26ºC depths ... SST depths generally have to run in the order of about 100-150M deep to support rapid intensification ... we saw that with Alex as it crossed the Gulf Stream waters when it became a major hurricane ... the TCHP was quite high, running over 200 KJ/cm-2 and the SST's DEPTHS over 26ºC were as deep as 200M ...
Bonnie will only have a small window to do so, it will have an area that is sufficient to support some quick intensification SHOULD the conditions be favorable enough to support it, (unlike Alex's situation) ... and it does not have a strong diffluent atmosphere like Alex did as well when it experienced shear (remember, the divergence aloft from the NE shear, and then the SW'ly shear actually aided in Alex's convection) ... see FIG. 1 and 2 below ...
This is the TCHP on 8.8.04 .. Notice the GOM is at best, only at the highest point, the TCHP is around 100 KJ/cm-2 ... FIG. 2 and 3 --- notice the HIGH TCHP off the coast of North Carolina on 8.2.04 and the SST DEPTHS over 26ºC on 8.2.04 ... dramatically DEEP ... off the charts, actually ... FIG 4. --- SST DEPTHS in the GOM/Western Caribbean over 26ºC ... greatest depths of sufficiently warm waters extend across most of the Western Caribbean, meanwhile only a small area in the GOM ...
FIG. 1 ---
FIG. 2 ---
FIG. 3 ---
[img]http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/MAPS/AT/2004215atd26.png
FIG. 4 ---
SF
