7:00AM STORM2K TROPICAL UPDATE, TUESDAY, AUGUST 10, 2004

[vbhoutex]

Tropical Storm Bonnie, a small compact storm, is located at 23.6N, 90.1W moving W-NW around 8 mph in the central Gulf of Mexico about 390 miles South of the mouth of the Mississippi River. Ts Bonnie is expected to continue this motion for most of today and then slow her forward speed somewhat and begin a turn to the North as she responds to and incoming trough from the NW that is expected to enter the NW GOM tomorrow. Top winds in Bonnie are currently at 50 mph with higher gusts as measured by reconnaissance. Tropical storm force winds only extend about 30 miles from the center of this small compact storm. An increase in strength is expected during the next 24 hours as Bonnie continues over the hot GOM waters. The minimum central pressure measured in Bonnie is 1007mb or 29.74 inches. Bonnie is a somewhat unique system due to her small size and the fact that reconnaissance found a 10 mile wide eye which is almost unheard of in systems of this strength and size. Due to the fact Bonnie is expected to move under anti-cyclonic flow in the central GOM later in the day which will help to vent the system and the fact she is expected to pass over a very deep pool of very warm water in the same area she is expected to become a Hurricane within 48 hours prior to landfall.

In the South Central Caribbean Tropical Storm Charley has been born this morning. Charley is located near 13.0N, 66.3W and is moving in a West-Northwest direction at around 25 mph. The estimated central pressure of Charley is 1007mb or 29.74 inches. Charley was born overnight as deep convection built and persisted around the low level circulation center. Charley continues to organize and is expected to continue this trend. Current winds are estimated at 40 mph with higher gusts to 50 mph in some squalls. All interests in the Central and Northwestern Caribbean should closely monitor the progress of Charley as he continues to organize and gain strength. A Tropical storm watch may be required later today for Jamaica. Charley, although currently a minimal tropical storm, is expected to strengthen over the next several days, possibly into a major Hurricane and move into the Southeastern Gulf of Mexico. For this reason all interests in the Florida Keys and Southern Florida should also be monitoring the progress of Charley closely in order to be able to take any precautions necessary in a timely manner should Tropical Storm Charley come their way. The environment ahead of Charley is quite favorable for continued strengthening.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclone development is not expected in the Atlantic Basin through Wednesday.

This is NOT an OFFICIAL product of the NHC. For OFFICIAL products contact the NHC or your local weather offices.

By David Van Bergen(vbhoutex)