3:00 PM EDT Special Update on Bonnie and Charley

[cycloneye]

First about Tropical Storm Bonnie this afternoon it has suffered from northerly shear and the cyclone is not as organized as this morning.However in the last hour that shear may be relaxing a little bit allowing the system to once again reorganize.The question is if this storm will intensify a lot, mantain it's own or weaken as it moves towards the gulf coast.Still it is unclear where exactly Bonnie will make landfall but my thinking is in the western Florida Panhandle or near the mouth of the Mississippi as a strong tropical storm but again too early to say exactly where it will make landfall.But I will make some strike probabilities for Bonnies landfall area.

Baton Rouge=30%
New Orleans=40%
Mobile=48%
Pensacola=60%
Fort Walton=75%
Destin=85%
Panama City=72%

Again do not take any of those probabllitys to the bank because they are not official.All interests should keep watching the progress of Bonnie and when watches and warnings are issued please listen to what your local officials say about evacuations in your area

Tropical Storm Charley continues to move rapidly WNW in the central Caribbean Sea.At that speed 22-24 mph this storm will not intensify as rapidly as first forecasted. It looks not too healthy this afternoon as an outflow boundary is visble but the Recon Plane will send out the data about what is going on with the storm.About the track still it is too early to say for sure what track Charley will take because many factors may come into play such as upper lows forming with the shear or the ridge breaking apart earlier that anticipated but my best take is that it will pass close or over Jamaica and then move more NW towards central or western Cuba.After that I will not venture any longer because large erors come ito play and I dont want to be caughted on that.I expect Charley to be a hurricane but I also wont venture too far on if it will be a major cane because those same upper lows may put a cap on intensification but it is early yet to asome that Charly will be a major cane or not.All interests in the NW caribbean,the Gulf coast and South Florida should keep watching the progress of this storm.

This update is not an official product.The official source is the National Hurricane Center.

Forecaster=Luis Martinez (Cycloneye)