Meanwhile looking to the east

[cycloneye]

This is from the San Juan NWS discussion:

t. s. charley continues to move quickly away from the local area this
morning. interesting convective cluster with likely a small but
vigorous mid level vort has dropped sw off africa and into the itcz
past 24 hours ... and gfs responding by linking this feature with the
next wave now exiting africa ... and bringing a significant wave into
the local region sunday - monday. with all eyes focused on the two
t. s. attm we will continue to monitor this feature next several
days. this has also played havoc with wind output from gfs for the
later period of our forecast and we have made some significant
changes to local wind forecasts beyond friday. additional changes in
both wind and weather forecast should be expected for this period
during the next few days as models attempt to resolve what this next
wave will do

Let's see how this system plays out in the comming days.

[cycloneye]

[Hyperstorm]

Yeah, that system inside Africa looks suspicious and could be a player for development. Conditions are ripe now in the E. Atlantic, but I wonder if it will be pushed into the ITCZ as its predecessors. There seems to be a longwate pattern that is UNUSUALLY amplified for this time of the year...HUGE trough United States...HUGE ridge E. Atlantic. This might keep the CV season in check this month.

Already in this image, I'm seeing good signature on satellite (the one inside Africa, as the one further west has dipped into ITCZ). It should have a LOW pressure center with it, maybe even some banding! Keep monitoring it Cycloneye...

[The Dark Knight]

Hmmmmm.........

[cycloneye]

http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/pdus/AI/200 ... 0AI1_g.jpg

Only looking at that 12:00 UTC full disk pic of Africa I say. Wow the train is now really loaded.

[WilloughbyStormWatcher]

Yeah, it definitely looks like the pieces of the puzzle on that wave are coming together and convergence into convection could probably take place within the next 24 hours, but only by what I am seeing at the satellite pic.

I guess we'll wait and see. Anyone know what the NHC is saying about this one? If not, I'll check it out.

[WilloughbyStormWatcher]

Here's the info from the NHC on this guy and convection is noted already (well, obviously by looking at the picture):

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS EMERGES OFF THE COAST OF GUINEA ALONG 10N15W TO 10N50W
12N70W 10N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 19W-21W...AND
FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 22W-26W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 30W-35W...AND FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 42W-48W.

[Hyperstorm]

This is from the San Juan NWS discussion:

t. s. charley continues to move quickly away from the local area this
morning. interesting convective cluster with likely a small but
vigorous mid level vort has dropped sw off africa and into the itcz
past 24 hours ... and gfs responding by linking this feature with the
next wave now exiting africa ... and bringing a significant wave into
the local region sunday - monday. with all eyes focused on the two
t. s. attm we will continue to monitor this feature next several
days. this has also played havoc with wind output from gfs for the
later period of our forecast and we have made some significant
changes to local wind forecasts beyond friday. additional changes in
both wind and weather forecast should be expected for this period
during the next few days as models attempt to resolve what this next
wave will do

Let's see how this system plays out in the comming days.

Also, it's probably not the same system we're monitoring that's expected to be there by SUNDAY-MONDAY?? It should be the one in the C. Atlantic that they are forecasting on Sunday-Monday. The one inside Africa, however, does have potential.

[BayouVenteux]

There seems to be a longwate pattern that is UNUSUALLY amplified for this time of the year...HUGE trough United States...HUGE ridge E. Atlantic. This might keep the CV season in check this month.

Amplified yes...at present, that is. I find it somewhat disconcerting that this progressive, unusually high amplitude pattern we are in began in what, early to mid July?, and has lasted roughly 5, maybe 6 weeks thus far. That's a long time. We have all watched weather long enough to know that patterns don't last forever and this current one we find ourselves in is no exception. My worry is that we will soon slip into a more zonal, less amplified phase that will coincide with the next uptick of the Madden-Julian Oscillation in the Atlantic basin. In my opinion, that doesn't bode particularly well for any thought of keeping the Cape Verde train from rolling toward points west unabated.

[cycloneye]

Yes that azores high has been strong so far with fluctuations and that is why we see the waves flying.