Recon reports from Bonnie and Charley

[cycloneye]

000
URNT11 KNHC 111101
97779 11014 40167 72000 56200 16028 57593 /4588
RMK AF968 0203A CHARLEY OB 04


16.7n-72.0w South of Santo Domingo the plane is at this observation #4 so not there yet but getting close.

[Hyperstorm]

I wonder why they waited until now to send a plane to Charley. I believe I read on their page yesterday, that there should have been a plane there by 0600Z. Anybody knows what happened with that flight?

[weatherlover427]

16028

Is that the wind part of the obs?

If so then it would mean...

160° (or SSE) at 28 kts (or approx. 32 MPH) at that location.

How close is that to the LLC?

[Thunder44]

URNT11 KNHC 111137
97779 11374 40159 74419 15000 15055 16169 /2487
RMK AF968 0203A CHARLEY OB 06

There in the storm now
Location: 15.9N 74.4W
Flight Level Winds: SE at 55kts

[cycloneye]

http://www.hurricanehunters.com/recco.htm

Josh at link above are all the explanations about all the numbers in the obs.This will be helpful for you and many who may not know to read those numbers and what they mean.

[Thunder44]

URNT12 KNHC 111116
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 11/1116Z
B. 25 DEG 42 MIN N
90 DEG 32 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1452 M
D. N/A
E. N/A
F. 326 DEG 30 KT
G. 265 DEG 017 NM
H. 1002 MB
I. 19 C/ 1487 M
J. 25 C/ 1492 M
K. 15 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/8
O. 0.1/ 3 NM
P. AF977 0702A BONNIE OB 19
MAX FL WIND 52 KT SE QUAD 0957Z.

This a new vortex on Bonnie, and the last one this morning. The pressure here shows that it 1002mb, but the 8am advisory shows the pressure is 1000mb. I suspect they dropsonde they dropped to measure the pressure missed the center and 1000mb is the estimate.

[HURAKAN]

Why the 8 AM advisory on Charley has not been issued?

[MortisFL]

its out now

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at ... ublic.html

[Thunder44]

It just came out

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... ublic.html

[BonesXL]

Any new recon info. on charley?

[Hyperstorm]

The system is looking (satellite-wise) similar to Debby in 2000 when it was a hurricane. Folks, this is likely a hurricane as we speak.

[jlauderdal]

The system is looking (satellite-wise) similar to Debby in 2000 when it was a hurricane. Folks, this is likely a hurricane as we speak.

I thought Debby weakened due to the interaction with the mountains.

[Hyperstorm]

It sure was a contribution of factors. Initially, the mountains played a role in disrupting its LLC, but shear ultimately killed it.

[Thunder44]

URNT12 KNHC 111223
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 11/1223Z
B. 16 DEG 19 MIN N
75 DEG 24 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1368 M
D. 55 KT
E. 299 DEG 08 NM
F. 062 DEG 76 KT
G. 301 DEG 007 NM
H. 995 MB
I. 17 C/ 1521 M
J. 21 C/ 1525 M
K. 16 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C12
N. 12345/8
O. 0.1/3.0 NM
P. AF968 0203A CHARLEY OB 07
MAX FL WIND 76 KT NW QUAD 1221Z.

Looks like Charley is now a 75mph hurricane!

[Derek Ortt]

recon says 76KT in the NW quad at FL and a 12NM closed eye

[Brent]

Yep. I'll probably fall out of my chair if it's not upgraded at 11am EDT.

Poor Jamaica, no Hurricane Warning STILL.

[Thunder44]

It may not be a hurricane at 11am. 12z Models initialized at 60kts winds, 995mb pressure. I think they may be using a lower estimate with this storm.

http://net-waves.com/weather/model.php

[washington]

Bonnie will not be a hurricane if the shear picks back up. If that does not happen then The Big Bend will be dealing with a hurricane right before landfall.

[HURAKAN]

Cuba still without a Hurricane Warning or any other type of warning or watches. I read in Cuba's Instituto de Meteorología (Intitute of Meteorology) website that they are preparing the people for Charley, especially those who live in the central and western provinces of the island, including the special municipality of Isla de la Juventud (Isle of Youth). Fortunately, the Cuban people know very well what a hurricane is although they are not prepare not even for a tropical storm. A major hurricane through Havana will be devastating since most of the buildings are from when Cuba was a Spanish colony.

[Hyperstorm]

It may not be a hurricane at 11am. 12z Models initialized at 60kts winds, 995mb pressure. I think they may be using a lower estimate with this storm.

http://net-waves.com/weather/model.php

Probably because of the pressure. 995mb NORMALLY doesn't support hurricane force winds, but many tropical storms have been hurricanes at this pressure. I was referencing Debby which also had a similar satellite presentation and, coincidentally, a similar pressure when it was a hurricane.

Anything is possible...